Nexen Tire넥센타이어
002350 · KOSPI · ₩002350 · 넥센타이어
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩4,305
vs the current price (₩5,650)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.9T
- Equity value
- ₩448B
- WACC
- 4.9%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩4,305
- −23.8%
- Bull
- ₩50,416
- +792.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.2%).
Revenue growth
- 7.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 8.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 34.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩3.3T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1.4T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩20B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩5B
- Shares
- 104,167,877
- incl. 6,500,000 preferred
- Share price
- ₩5,650
- Market cap
- ₩577B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩2.7T | ₩2.8T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.6T | ₩3.8T | ₩4T | ₩4.1T | ₩4.3T |
| Growth | 4.0% | 5.4% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩187B | ₩172B | ₩170B | ₩150B | ₩160B | ₩168B | ₩174B | ₩179B |
| EBIT margin | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩136B | ₩125B | ₩123B | ₩109B | ₩116B | ₩121B | ₩126B | ₩130B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩251B | ₩266B | ₩279B | ₩290B | ₩299B |
| − Capital spending | ₩323B | ₩205B | ₩223B | ₩312B | ₩331B | ₩347B | ₩361B | ₩372B |
| − Working capital | ₩126B | ₩116B | ₩122B | ₩81B | ₩75B | ₩65B | ₩55B | ₩43B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩33B | −₩24B | −₩12B | ₩1.1B | ₩15B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.953 | 0.908 | 0.865 | 0.825 | 0.786 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩32B | −₩22B | −₩10B | ₩882M | ₩12B |
Terminal value ₩2.5T, worth ₩1.9T today: 103% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩20,763 a share)Now 0.27× | ₩6,4200.31× | ₩8,6680.42× | ₩11,0120.53× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,480 a share)Now 3.82× | ₩6,0474.09× | ₩8,8455.98× | ₩24,83016.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩8 a share)Now 680.1× | ₩344.09× | ₩505.98× | ₩13916.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.9% | ₩9,008 | ₩11,504 | ₩15,260 | ₩21,585 | ₩34,591 |
| 4.4% | ₩5,154 | ₩6,614 | ₩8,651 | ₩11,709 | ₩16,853 |
| 4.9% | ₩2,291 | ₩3,159 | ₩4,305 | ₩5,898 | ₩8,283 |
| 5.4% | ₩83 | ₩593 | ₩1,235 | ₩2,077 | ₩3,242 |
| 5.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩552B
- Enterprise value
- ₩2T
- P/E
- 3.6×
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.5%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩7,530 | ₩6,010 | ₩8,040 | ₩6,120 | ₩6,820 |
| Market cap | ₩735B | ₩587B | ₩785B | ₩598B | ₩666B |
| P/E | 4.9× | 4.6× | 7.6× | — | 138.3× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.4× |
| P/S | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.7% | 2.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nexen Tire | 3.6× | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 3.5% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology | 5.8× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 4.0% |
| Kumho Tire | 3.1× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Pum-Tech Korea | 19.8× | 2.5× | 2.1× | — | 0.7% |
| Dongwon Systems | 9.7× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 5.7× | 2.8% |
| PI Advanced Materials | 12.4× | 1.2× | 1.7× | 5.0× | 2.3% |
| Nexen | 2.7× | 0.2× | 0.1× | — | 2.9% |
| Similar companies (median) | 7.7× | 0.6× | 0.4× | 5.4× | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Nexen Tire / 넥센타이어 / 002350 / KRX:002350
Source: KRX statistical information