KOSPI · 002450 · Consumer goods · ₩002450

Samick Musical Instruments삼익악기

002450 · KOSPI · ₩002450 · 삼익악기

₩1,027▼ ₩13 (1.25%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,741

vs the current price (₩1,027)

Enterprise value: ₩60B
Equity value: ₩158B
WACC: 7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 70% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩1,027, the model needs an operating margin of 0.6% every year (it uses 3.3%).
Margins ranged from 1.0% to 11.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
82% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
Today's P/E is 2.2× against a typical 6.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩1,235; +20.2%
Base: ₩1,741; +69.6%
Bull: ₩2,692; +162.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.3%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 4-0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin3.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation3.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending4.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital17.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩225B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩5.4B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩92B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 90,530,915
Share price: ₩1,027
Market cap: ₩93B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩248B	₩230B	₩224B	₩202B	₩189B	₩182B	₩182B	₩187B
Growth	−23.9%	−7.1%	−2.6%	−10.0%	−6.7%	−3.5%	−0.2%	3.0%
EBIT	₩6.5B	₩5.9B	₩2.3B	₩6.7B	₩6.2B	₩6B	₩6B	₩6.2B
EBIT margin	2.6%	2.6%	1.0%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
After-tax EBIT	₩4.7B	₩4.3B	₩1.7B	₩4.8B	₩4.5B	₩4.4B	₩4.4B	₩4.5B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩7.5B	₩7B	₩6.7B	₩6.7B	₩6.9B
− Capital spending	₩11B	₩3.1B	₩19B	₩9.3B	₩8.7B	₩8.4B	₩8.4B	₩8.6B
− Working capital	−₩24B	−₩14B	−₩8B	−₩4B	−₩2.4B	−₩1.2B	−₩64M	₩960M
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩7B	₩5.2B	₩3.9B	₩2.8B	₩1.8B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.932	0.868	0.809	0.754	0.703
Present value	—	—	—	₩6.5B	₩4.5B	₩3.1B	₩2.1B	₩1.3B

Terminal value ₩60B, worth ₩42B today: 71% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩3,653 a share)Now 0.28×	₩1,2830.35×	₩1,4450.40×	₩1,9560.54×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩458 a share)Now 2.24×	₩1,7283.77×	₩3,0116.57×	₩15,86434.6×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,373 a share)Now 0.75×	₩5,1823.77×	₩9,0276.57×	₩47,56334.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.3%	₩1,814	₩1,844	₩1,881	₩1,928	₩1,988
6.8%	₩1,755	₩1,777	₩1,804	₩1,837	₩1,878
7.3%	₩1,704	₩1,721	₩1,741	₩1,765	₩1,794
7.8%	₩1,662	₩1,674	₩1,689	₩1,707	₩1,727
8.3%	₩1,625	₩1,634	₩1,645	₩1,658	₩1,673

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩93B
Enterprise value: ₩79B
P/E: 2.2×
P/B: 0.3×
P/S: 0.4×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 4.9%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩1,240	₩1,165	₩1,090	₩1,285	₩1,825
Market cap	₩112B	₩105B	₩99B	₩116B	₩165B
P/E	6.4×	33.5×	28.8×	7.7×	6.7×
P/B	0.4×	0.4×	0.4×	0.4×	0.6×
P/S	0.5×	0.5×	0.4×	0.4×	0.6×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	4.0%	4.3%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Samick Musical Instruments	2.2×	0.3×	0.4×	—	4.9%
Spigen Korea	3.3×	0.3×	0.4×	—	0.0%
Novatech	3.5×	0.7×	2.5×	—	0.0%
Alux	—	1.8×	1.1×	—	0.0%
Xplus	—	3.4×	6.2×	—	0.0%
E-World	—	0.3×	0.6×	—	0.0%
Envioneer	—	1.1×	2.4×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	3.4×	0.9×	1.7×	—	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samick Musical Instruments / 삼익악기 / 002450 / KRX:002450

Source: KRX statistical information