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Sinsin Pharmaceutical

002800 · KOSDAQ · ₩002800 · 신신제약

₩4,035▼ ₩15 (0.37%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩7,166

vs the current price (₩4,035)

Enterprise value
₩141B
Equity value
₩109B
WACC
6.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 78% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,035, the model needs an operating margin of 5.1% every year (it uses 6.9%).
  • Or revenue growth −12.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −1.8% to 9.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 4.5× against a typical 18.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,222
−44.9%
Base
₩7,166
+77.6%
Bull
₩16,953
+320.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 7.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 31%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩123B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩37B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
15,170,500
Share price
₩4,035
Market cap
₩61B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩103B₩106B₩114B₩132B₩140B₩148B₩154B₩158B
Growth11.6%3.7%6.9%7.4%6.3%5.2%4.1%3.0%
EBIT₩6B₩6.9B₩11B₩9.1B₩9.7B₩10B₩11B₩11B
EBIT margin5.9%6.5%9.5%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%
After-tax EBIT₩4.4B₩5B₩7.8B₩6.6B₩7B₩7.4B₩7.7B₩7.9B
+ Depreciation———₩2.8B₩3B₩3.1B₩3.2B₩3.3B
− Capital spending₩5B₩1.5B₩1.6B₩3.4B₩3.7B₩3.8B₩4B₩4.1B
− Working capital₩4.7B₩3.8B₩4.1B₩2.8B₩2.6B₩2.3B₩1.9B₩1.4B
Free cash flow———₩3.1B₩3.7B₩4.4B₩5B₩5.7B
Discount factor———0.9430.8890.8380.7900.744
Present value———₩2.9B₩3.3B₩3.7B₩4B₩4.2B

Terminal value ₩165B, worth ₩123B today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,214 a share)Now 0.77×₩5,6661.09×₩6,8281.31×₩8,6411.66×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩888 a share)Now 4.55×₩6,0866.86×₩16,54618.6×₩21,51924.2×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩972 a share)Now 4.15×₩6,6616.86×₩18,10918.6×₩23,55224.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.1%₩8,137₩9,092₩10,351₩12,094₩14,667
5.6%₩6,944₩7,644₩8,536₩9,713₩11,341
6.1%₩5,987₩6,513₩7,166₩7,997₩9,094
6.6%₩5,202₩5,606₩6,096₩6,703₩7,476
7.1%₩4,548₩4,863₩5,238₩5,692₩6,255

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩61B
Enterprise value
₩98B
P/E
4.5×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,860₩5,430₩6,240₩5,580₩6,450
Market cap₩89B₩82B₩95B₩85B₩98B
P/E9.6×16.9×20.2×19.2×—
P/B1.2×1.3×1.5×1.4×1.8×
P/S0.8×0.8×0.9×0.9×1.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.4%1.1%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Sinsin Pharmaceutical4.5×0.8×0.5×—2.0%
Samsung Biologics32.1×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.8×2.4×8.9×—0.0%
Alteogen78.8×28.4×59.9×—0.1%
Yuhan24.8×2.5×2.6×32.5×0.8%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.6×5.7×6.8×—0.0%
HLB—15.4×54.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.8×6.7×11.5×32.5×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Sinsin Pharmaceutical / 신신제약 / 002800 / KRX:002800

Source: KRX statistical information