Miwon Commercial

002840 · KOSPI · ₩002840 · 미원상사

₩137,900▲ ₩3,400 (2.53%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩160,397

vs the current price (₩137,900)

Enterprise value
₩703B
Equity value
₩722B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩99,303
−28.0%
Base
₩160,397
+16.3%
Bull
₩265,213
+92.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 7.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 12.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 31.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩469B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩10B
+ Stakes and investments
₩8.9B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
4,500,000
Share price
₩137,900
Market cap
₩621B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩421B₩436B₩441B₩470B₩474B₩482B₩493B₩508B
Growth−3.8%3.4%1.2%0.2%0.9%1.6%2.3%3.0%
EBIT₩67B₩60B₩44B₩66B₩67B₩68B₩69B₩72B
EBIT margin16.0%13.8%9.9%14.1%14.1%14.1%14.1%14.1%
After-tax EBIT₩49B₩43B₩32B₩48B₩48B₩49B₩50B₩52B
+ Depreciation₩31B₩33B—₩35B₩35B₩36B₩36B₩38B
− Capital spending₩60B₩50B₩49B₩58B₩58B₩59B₩61B₩62B
− Working capital−₩4.1B₩14B₩17B₩294M₩1.3B₩2.4B₩3.5B₩4.6B
Free cash flow₩23B₩12B—₩25B₩24B₩23B₩23B₩22B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩23B₩21B₩19B₩17B₩16B

Terminal value ₩864B, worth ₩607B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩95,213 a share)Now 1.45×₩138,7091.46×₩206,6682.17×₩250,6872.63×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩11,737 a share)Now 11.7×₩126,70810.8×₩159,18813.6×₩188,21516.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩16,615 a share)Now 8.30×₩179,37410.8×₩225,35413.6×₩266,44516.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩170,994₩184,118₩200,257₩220,600₩247,054
6.8%₩155,155₩165,618₩178,231₩193,742₩213,293
7.3%₩141,865₩150,344₩160,397₩172,515₩187,417
7.8%₩130,563₩137,528₩145,672₩155,327₩166,965
8.3%₩120,838₩126,627₩133,314₩141,133₩150,403

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩621B
Enterprise value
₩610B
P/E
11.7×
P/B
1.4×
P/S
1.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩150,300₩188,000₩170,400₩166,000₩203,500
Market cap₩676B₩846B₩767B₩747B₩916B
P/E15.5×16.7×12.6×10.3×15.9×
P/B1.6×2.1×2.0×2.2×3.1×
P/S1.5×1.9×1.8×1.7×2.5×
EV/EBITDA—8.7×7.5×6.9×11.0×
Dividend yield1.6%1.1%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Miwon Commercial11.7×1.4×1.3×—1.7%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha5.9×0.4×0.1×—1.5%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.9×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.3×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.3×0.4×0.4×8.9×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Miwon Commercial / 미원상사 / 002840 / KRX:002840

Source: KRX statistical information