Miwon Commercial미원상사
002840 · KOSPI · ₩002840 · 미원상사
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩160,397
vs the current price (₩137,900)
- Enterprise value
- ₩703B
- Equity value
- ₩722B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩99,303
- −28.0%
- Base
- ₩160,397
- +16.3%
- Bull
- ₩265,213
- +92.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.1%).
Revenue growth
- 0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 14.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 7.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 12.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 31.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩469B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩10B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩8.9B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 4,500,000
- Share price
- ₩137,900
- Market cap
- ₩621B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩421B | ₩436B | ₩441B | ₩470B | ₩474B | ₩482B | ₩493B | ₩508B |
| Growth | −3.8% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩67B | ₩60B | ₩44B | ₩66B | ₩67B | ₩68B | ₩69B | ₩72B |
| EBIT margin | 16.0% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩49B | ₩43B | ₩32B | ₩48B | ₩48B | ₩49B | ₩50B | ₩52B |
| + Depreciation | ₩31B | ₩33B | — | ₩35B | ₩35B | ₩36B | ₩36B | ₩38B |
| − Capital spending | ₩60B | ₩50B | ₩49B | ₩58B | ₩58B | ₩59B | ₩61B | ₩62B |
| − Working capital | −₩4.1B | ₩14B | ₩17B | ₩294M | ₩1.3B | ₩2.4B | ₩3.5B | ₩4.6B |
| Free cash flow | ₩23B | ₩12B | — | ₩25B | ₩24B | ₩23B | ₩23B | ₩22B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩17B | ₩16B |
Terminal value ₩864B, worth ₩607B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩95,213 a share)Now 1.45× | ₩138,7091.46× | ₩206,6682.17× | ₩250,6872.63× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩11,737 a share)Now 11.7× | ₩126,70810.8× | ₩159,18813.6× | ₩188,21516.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩16,615 a share)Now 8.30× | ₩179,37410.8× | ₩225,35413.6× | ₩266,44516.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩170,994 | ₩184,118 | ₩200,257 | ₩220,600 | ₩247,054 |
| 6.8% | ₩155,155 | ₩165,618 | ₩178,231 | ₩193,742 | ₩213,293 |
| 7.3% | ₩141,865 | ₩150,344 | ₩160,397 | ₩172,515 | ₩187,417 |
| 7.8% | ₩130,563 | ₩137,528 | ₩145,672 | ₩155,327 | ₩166,965 |
| 8.3% | ₩120,838 | ₩126,627 | ₩133,314 | ₩141,133 | ₩150,403 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩621B
- Enterprise value
- ₩610B
- P/E
- 11.7×
- P/B
- 1.4×
- P/S
- 1.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.7%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩150,300 | ₩188,000 | ₩170,400 | ₩166,000 | ₩203,500 |
| Market cap | ₩676B | ₩846B | ₩767B | ₩747B | ₩916B |
| P/E | 15.5× | 16.7× | 12.6× | 10.3× | 15.9× |
| P/B | 1.6× | 2.1× | 2.0× | 2.2× | 3.1× |
| P/S | 1.5× | 1.9× | 1.8× | 1.7× | 2.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 8.7× | 7.5× | 6.9× | 11.0× |
| Dividend yield | 1.6% | 1.1% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miwon Commercial | 11.7× | 1.4× | 1.3× | — | 1.7% |
| LG Chem | — | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 0.9% |
| Hanwha Solutions | — | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanwha | 5.9× | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 1.5% |
| SKC | — | 1.8× | 1.7× | — | 0.0% |
| KCC | 0.9× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 8.9× | 0.0% |
| Kumho Petro Chemical | 5.3× | 0.4× | 0.4× | — | 1.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 5.3× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 8.9× | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Miwon Commercial / 미원상사 / 002840 / KRX:002840
Source: KRX statistical information