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Shinpoong

002870 · KOSPI · ₩002870 · 신풍

₩992▼ ₩8 (0.80%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩68B
Equity value
−₩59B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩992, the model needs an operating margin of 8.3% every year (it uses −14.7%).
  • Margins ranged from −22.4% to −9.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−14.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 8.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -14.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩25B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩9B
Shares
34,958,700
Share price
₩992
Market cap
₩35B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩27B₩23B₩24B₩27B₩29B₩31B₩32B₩33B
Growth43.2%−15.3%6.4%8.9%7.4%5.9%4.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩4B−₩4.4B−₩2.3B−₩4B−₩4.3B−₩4.5B−₩4.7B−₩4.9B
EBIT margin−14.9%−19.2%−9.5%−14.7%−14.7%−14.7%−14.7%−14.7%
After-tax EBIT−₩2.9B−₩3.2B−₩1.7B−₩2.9B−₩3.1B−₩3.3B−₩3.4B−₩3.5B
+ Depreciation———₩677M₩727M₩770M₩805M₩829M
− Capital spending₩862M₩1.1B₩358M₩839M₩902M₩955M₩998M₩1B
− Working capital−₩2.8B−₩13B−₩4.3B₩885M₩802M₩686M₩554M₩386M
Free cash flow———−₩3.9B−₩4.1B−₩4.2B−₩4.2B−₩4.1B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———−₩3.7B−₩3.5B−₩3.4B−₩3.1B−₩2.9B

Terminal value −₩73B, worth −₩51B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,327 a share)Now 0.43×₩9100.39×₩1,2070.52×₩1,6750.72×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%—————
6.9%—————
7.4%—————
7.9%—————
8.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩35B
Enterprise value
₩25B
P/E
4.0×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
1.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,126₩1,268₩835₩1,150₩2,215
Market cap₩39B₩44B₩29B₩40B₩77B
P/E19.7×143.5×———
P/B0.5×0.6×0.4×0.5×0.9×
P/S1.6×1.9×1.1×2.1×3.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Shinpoong4.0×0.4×1.4×—0.0%
Samsung C&T17.5×0.5×1.1×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC41.4×5.5×11.5×—0.6%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.0×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.7×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)15.6×1.0×0.9×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shinpoong / 신풍 / 002870 / KRX:002870

Source: KRX statistical information