Hankook Shell Oil

002960 · KOSPI · ₩002960 · 한국쉘석유

₩525,000▼ ₩2,000 (0.38%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩587,245

vs the current price (₩525,000)

Enterprise value
₩733B
Equity value
₩763B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩382,223
−27.2%
Base
₩587,245
+11.9%
Bull
₩926,411
+76.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩351B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩30B
Shares
1,300,000
Share price
₩525,000
Market cap
₩683B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩320B₩327B₩345B₩367B₩383B₩397B₩411B₩423B
Growth6.2%2.1%5.4%4.6%4.2%3.8%3.4%3.0%
EBIT₩42B₩46B₩53B₩54B₩56B₩58B₩60B₩62B
EBIT margin13.2%14.0%15.3%14.6%14.6%14.6%14.6%14.6%
After-tax EBIT₩31B₩33B₩38B₩39B₩41B₩42B₩43B₩45B
+ Depreciation———₩6.6B₩6.9B₩7.2B₩7.4B₩7.6B
− Capital spending₩3.2B—₩12B₩8.4B₩8.8B₩9.1B₩9.4B₩9.7B
− Working capital−₩45B₩16B−₩2.4B₩1.2B₩1.1B₩1.1B₩1,000M₩912M
Free cash flow———₩36B₩37B₩39B₩40B₩42B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩33B₩32B₩31B₩30B₩29B

Terminal value ₩823B, worth ₩576B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩94,588 a share)Now 5.55×₩252,7382.67×₩320,0923.38×₩498,5005.27×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩39,410 a share)Now 13.3×₩370,7609.41×₩441,05711.2×₩566,69114.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩39,243 a share)Now 13.4×₩369,1869.41×₩439,18511.2×₩564,28614.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩610,611₩658,756₩717,871₩792,195₩888,475
6.9%₩559,698₩598,783₩645,858₩703,658₩776,329
7.4%₩516,784₩549,027₩587,245₩633,276₩689,795
7.9%₩480,125₩507,085₩538,614₩575,988₩621,002
8.4%₩448,448₩471,253₩497,619₩528,454₩565,005

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩683B
Enterprise value
₩648B
P/E
13.3×
P/B
5.6×
P/S
1.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩450,500₩318,500₩226,000₩233,500₩257,500
Market cap₩586B₩414B₩294B₩304B₩335B
P/E12.1×11.3×7.9×11.4×11.5×
P/B4.2×3.3×2.3×2.7×3.1×
P/S1.7×1.3×0.9×1.0×1.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hankook Shell Oil13.3×5.6×1.9×—0.0%
SK Innovation—0.9×0.3×—0.0%
S-Oil9.3×1.4×0.4×—0.3%
Michang Oil IND1.6×0.4×0.5×—3.0%
Kukdong Oil & Chemicals10.1×0.5×0.1×—6.1%
Similar companies (median)9.3×0.7×0.3×—1.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hankook Shell Oil / 한국쉘석유 / 002960 / KRX:002960

Source: KRX statistical information