Ilsung IS일성아이에스
003120 · KOSPI · ₩003120 · 일성아이에스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩14,780
vs the current price (₩21,150)
- Enterprise value
- −₩97B
- Equity value
- ₩157B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩16,131
- −23.7%
- Base
- ₩14,780
- −30.1%
- Bull
- ₩13,254
- −37.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−7.9%).
Revenue growth
- 1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -7.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 8.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 10.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩65B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩212B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩43B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 10,640,000
- Share price
- ₩21,150
- Market cap
- ₩225B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩78B | ₩69B | ₩64B | ₩66B | ₩68B | ₩69B | ₩71B | ₩73B |
| Growth | 27.4% | −11.6% | −6.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩8B | −₩9.5B | −₩6.2B | −₩5.2B | −₩5.3B | −₩5.5B | −₩5.6B | −₩5.8B |
| EBIT margin | −10.2% | −13.8% | −9.6% | −7.9% | −7.9% | −7.9% | −7.9% | −7.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩5.8B | −₩6.9B | −₩4.5B | −₩3.8B | −₩3.9B | −₩4B | −₩4.1B | −₩4.2B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩5.4B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.8B | ₩6B |
| − Capital spending | ₩7.7B | ₩12B | ₩2.2B | ₩6.8B | ₩7B | ₩7.1B | ₩7.3B | ₩7.5B |
| − Working capital | −₩3.9B | ₩20B | −₩16B | ₩417M | ₩530M | ₩622M | ₩747M | ₩852M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩5.6B | −₩5.8B | −₩6B | −₩6.3B | −₩6.6B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩5.2B | −₩5.1B | −₩4.9B | −₩4.8B | −₩4.6B |
Terminal value −₩103B, worth −₩73B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩35,693 a share)Now 0.59× | ₩15,5080.43× | ₩19,3830.54× | ₩23,6000.66× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩517 a share)Now 40.9× | ₩9321.80× | ₩8,14815.8× | ₩21,68141.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩14,844 | ₩13,898 | ₩12,730 | ₩11,252 | ₩9,324 |
| 6.8% | ₩15,595 | ₩14,810 | ₩13,861 | ₩12,689 | ₩11,206 |
| 7.3% | ₩16,227 | ₩15,567 | ₩14,780 | ₩13,828 | ₩12,652 |
| 7.8% | ₩16,767 | ₩16,204 | ₩15,542 | ₩14,753 | ₩13,799 |
| 8.3% | ₩17,235 | ₩16,748 | ₩16,183 | ₩15,520 | ₩14,729 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩225B
- Enterprise value
- ₩13B
- P/E
- 40.9×
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 3.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 5.7%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩21,800 | ₩15,500 | ₩23,650 | ₩16,901 | ₩14,778 |
| Market cap | ₩232B | ₩165B | ₩252B | ₩180B | ₩157B |
| P/E | 199.0× | 12.6× | — | 1.7× | — |
| P/B | 0.6× | 0.4× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 0.5× |
| P/S | 3.6× | 2.4× | 3.2× | 2.9× | 3.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 5.5% | 6.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilsung IS | 40.9× | 0.6× | 3.5× | — | 5.7% |
| Samsung Biologics | 34.7× | 8.2× | 15.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 28.2× | 2.5× | 9.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 76.3× | 27.5× | 58.0× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 15.2× | 6.0× | 7.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 23.3× | 2.3× | 2.4× | 30.4× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.5× | 54.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 28.2× | 7.1× | 12.1× | 30.4× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Ilsung IS / 일성아이에스 / 003120 / KRX:003120
Source: KRX statistical information