Ilsung IS

003120 · KOSPI · ₩003120 · 일성아이에스

₩21,150▼ ₩650 (2.98%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩14,780

vs the current price (₩21,150)

Enterprise value
−₩97B
Equity value
₩157B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩16,131
−23.7%
Base
₩14,780
−30.1%
Bull
₩13,254
−37.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−7.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -7.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 8.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 10.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩65B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩212B
+ Stakes and investments
₩43B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
10,640,000
Share price
₩21,150
Market cap
₩225B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩78B₩69B₩64B₩66B₩68B₩69B₩71B₩73B
Growth27.4%−11.6%−6.8%1.6%2.0%2.3%2.7%3.0%
EBIT−₩8B−₩9.5B−₩6.2B−₩5.2B−₩5.3B−₩5.5B−₩5.6B−₩5.8B
EBIT margin−10.2%−13.8%−9.6%−7.9%−7.9%−7.9%−7.9%−7.9%
After-tax EBIT−₩5.8B−₩6.9B−₩4.5B−₩3.8B−₩3.9B−₩4B−₩4.1B−₩4.2B
+ Depreciation———₩5.4B₩5.5B₩5.7B₩5.8B₩6B
− Capital spending₩7.7B₩12B₩2.2B₩6.8B₩7B₩7.1B₩7.3B₩7.5B
− Working capital−₩3.9B₩20B−₩16B₩417M₩530M₩622M₩747M₩852M
Free cash flow———−₩5.6B−₩5.8B−₩6B−₩6.3B−₩6.6B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———−₩5.2B−₩5.1B−₩4.9B−₩4.8B−₩4.6B

Terminal value −₩103B, worth −₩73B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩35,693 a share)Now 0.59×₩15,5080.43×₩19,3830.54×₩23,6000.66×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩517 a share)Now 40.9×₩9321.80×₩8,14815.8×₩21,68141.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩14,844₩13,898₩12,730₩11,252₩9,324
6.8%₩15,595₩14,810₩13,861₩12,689₩11,206
7.3%₩16,227₩15,567₩14,780₩13,828₩12,652
7.8%₩16,767₩16,204₩15,542₩14,753₩13,799
8.3%₩17,235₩16,748₩16,183₩15,520₩14,729

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩225B
Enterprise value
₩13B
P/E
40.9×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
3.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩21,800₩15,500₩23,650₩16,901₩14,778
Market cap₩232B₩165B₩252B₩180B₩157B
P/E199.0×12.6×—1.7×—
P/B0.6×0.4×0.7×0.4×0.5×
P/S3.6×2.4×3.2×2.9×3.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.5%6.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Ilsung IS40.9×0.6×3.5×—5.7%
Samsung Biologics34.7×8.2×15.1×—0.0%
Celltrion28.2×2.5×9.1×—0.0%
Alteogen76.3×27.5×58.0×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.3×2.3×2.4×30.4×0.8%
HLB—15.5×54.7×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)28.2×7.1×12.1×30.4×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Ilsung IS / 일성아이에스 / 003120 / KRX:003120

Source: KRX statistical information