Daewon Pharmaceutical대원제약
003220 · KOSPI · ₩003220 · 대원제약
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩10,295
vs the current price (₩7,760)
- Enterprise value
- ₩352B
- Equity value
- ₩231B
- WACC
- 6.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩10,295
- +32.7%
- Bull
- ₩36,581
- +371.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.2%).
Revenue growth
- 8.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 6.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 18.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩615B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩123B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩10B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩8.1B
- Shares
- 22,427,583
- Share price
- ₩7,760
- Market cap
- ₩174B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩527B | ₩598B | ₩605B | ₩664B | ₩710B | ₩749B | ₩782B | ₩805B |
| Growth | 10.0% | 13.5% | 1.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩32B | ₩28B | ₩3.5B | ₩28B | ₩30B | ₩31B | ₩33B | ₩34B |
| EBIT margin | 6.1% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩23B | ₩20B | ₩2.5B | ₩20B | ₩22B | ₩23B | ₩24B | ₩25B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩35B | ₩38B | ₩40B | ₩41B | ₩43B |
| − Capital spending | ₩21B | ₩54B | ₩42B | ₩44B | ₩47B | ₩49B | ₩52B | ₩53B |
| − Working capital | −₩8.2B | ₩24B | −₩51B | ₩9.1B | ₩8.3B | ₩7.3B | ₩5.9B | ₩4.3B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩2.5B | ₩4.1B | ₩5.8B | ₩7.7B | ₩9.8B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.943 | 0.890 | 0.839 | 0.791 | 0.746 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩2.3B | ₩3.7B | ₩4.9B | ₩6.1B | ₩7.3B |
Terminal value ₩438B, worth ₩327B today: 93% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩11,935 a share)Now 0.65× | ₩10,2680.86× | ₩14,9881.26× | ₩20,4501.71× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩117 a share)Now 66.1× | ₩1,22010.4× | ₩1,64614.0× | ₩4,23036.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩718 a share)Now 10.8× | ₩7,46710.4× | ₩10,07814.0× | ₩25,89036.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | ₩12,180 | ₩13,864 | ₩16,097 | ₩19,205 | ₩23,834 |
| 5.5% | ₩10,002 | ₩11,222 | ₩12,781 | ₩14,848 | ₩17,723 |
| 6.0% | ₩8,262 | ₩9,169 | ₩10,295 | ₩11,734 | ₩13,640 |
| 6.5% | ₩6,843 | ₩7,530 | ₩8,364 | ₩9,398 | ₩10,720 |
| 7.0% | ₩5,663 | ₩6,192 | ₩6,821 | ₩7,584 | ₩8,531 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩174B
- Enterprise value
- ₩292B
- P/E
- 66.1×
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩11,950 | ₩14,250 | ₩15,660 | ₩18,750 | ₩16,650 |
| Market cap | ₩268B | ₩320B | ₩351B | ₩421B | ₩373B |
| P/E | — | 22.5× | 14.7× | 13.2× | 53.4× |
| P/B | 1.0× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 1.7× | 1.7× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.7× | 0.9× | 1.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daewon Pharmaceutical | 66.1× | 0.7× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Daewon Pharmaceutical / 대원제약 / 003220 / KRX:003220
Source: KRX statistical information