Daewon Pharmaceutical

003220 · KOSPI · ₩003220 · 대원제약

₩7,760▲ ₩30 (0.39%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩10,295

vs the current price (₩7,760)

Enterprise value
₩352B
Equity value
₩231B
WACC
6.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩10,295
+32.7%
Bull
₩36,581
+371.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 8.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 6.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 18.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩615B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩123B
+ Stakes and investments
₩10B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩8.1B
Shares
22,427,583
Share price
₩7,760
Market cap
₩174B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩527B₩598B₩605B₩664B₩710B₩749B₩782B₩805B
Growth10.0%13.5%1.2%8.1%6.8%5.6%4.3%3.0%
EBIT₩32B₩28B₩3.5B₩28B₩30B₩31B₩33B₩34B
EBIT margin6.1%4.7%0.6%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%4.2%
After-tax EBIT₩23B₩20B₩2.5B₩20B₩22B₩23B₩24B₩25B
+ Depreciation———₩35B₩38B₩40B₩41B₩43B
− Capital spending₩21B₩54B₩42B₩44B₩47B₩49B₩52B₩53B
− Working capital−₩8.2B₩24B−₩51B₩9.1B₩8.3B₩7.3B₩5.9B₩4.3B
Free cash flow———₩2.5B₩4.1B₩5.8B₩7.7B₩9.8B
Discount factor———0.9430.8900.8390.7910.746
Present value———₩2.3B₩3.7B₩4.9B₩6.1B₩7.3B

Terminal value ₩438B, worth ₩327B today: 93% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩11,935 a share)Now 0.65×₩10,2680.86×₩14,9881.26×₩20,4501.71×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩117 a share)Now 66.1×₩1,22010.4×₩1,64614.0×₩4,23036.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩718 a share)Now 10.8×₩7,46710.4×₩10,07814.0×₩25,89036.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.0%₩12,180₩13,864₩16,097₩19,205₩23,834
5.5%₩10,002₩11,222₩12,781₩14,848₩17,723
6.0%₩8,262₩9,169₩10,295₩11,734₩13,640
6.5%₩6,843₩7,530₩8,364₩9,398₩10,720
7.0%₩5,663₩6,192₩6,821₩7,584₩8,531

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩174B
Enterprise value
₩292B
P/E
66.1×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩11,950₩14,250₩15,660₩18,750₩16,650
Market cap₩268B₩320B₩351B₩421B₩373B
P/E—22.5×14.7×13.2×53.4×
P/B1.0×1.2×1.3×1.7×1.7×
P/S0.4×0.5×0.7×0.9×1.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Daewon Pharmaceutical66.1×0.7×0.3×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.0×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen80.5×29.0×61.2×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.7×5.8×6.8×—0.0%
Yuhan24.0×2.4×2.5×31.3×0.8%
HLB—15.7×55.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.7×11.5×31.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Daewon Pharmaceutical / 대원제약 / 003220 / KRX:003220

Source: KRX statistical information