Samyang Foods

003230 · KOSPI · ₩003230 · 삼양식품

₩1,133,000▲ ₩17,000 (1.52%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,242,060

vs the current price (₩1,133,000)

Enterprise value
₩9.3T
Equity value
₩9.4T
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩793,228
−30.0%
Base
₩1,242,060
+9.6%
Bull
₩1,978,986
+74.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.2%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 16.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 9.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 12.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -1.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩76B
+ Stakes and investments
₩16B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩17B
Shares
7,533,015
Share price
₩1,133,000
Market cap
₩8.5T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.2T₩1.7T₩2.4T₩3.4T₩4.1T₩4.7T₩5.1T₩5.2T
Growth31.2%44.9%36.1%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩148B₩345B₩524B₩558B₩667B₩760B₩824B₩849B
EBIT margin12.4%19.9%22.3%16.2%16.2%16.2%16.2%16.2%
After-tax EBIT₩107B₩250B₩380B₩404B₩483B₩551B₩598B₩616B
+ Depreciation———₩341B₩407B₩464B₩504B₩519B
− Capital spending₩49B₩233B₩461B₩427B₩510B₩582B₩631B₩650B
− Working capital−₩58B−₩156B₩222B−₩7.6B−₩7.4B−₩6.3B−₩4.4B−₩1.7B
Free cash flow———₩326B₩388B₩440B₩475B₩486B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———₩304B₩337B₩356B₩358B₩341B

Terminal value ₩11T, worth ₩7.6T today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩203,212 a share)Now 5.58×₩358,1411.76×₩800,8743.94×₩1,883,1149.27×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩64,729 a share)Now 17.5×₩649,59210.0×₩1,141,17217.6×₩1,904,71629.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩72,863 a share)Now 15.5×₩731,22610.0×₩1,284,58317.6×₩2,144,08129.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩1,285,455₩1,399,772₩1,540,485₩1,717,927₩1,948,630
6.8%₩1,170,515₩1,263,512₩1,375,762₩1,513,930₩1,688,161
7.3%₩1,073,840₩1,150,737₩1,242,060₩1,352,289₩1,487,969
7.8%₩991,418₩1,055,879₩1,131,398₩1,221,085₩1,329,338
8.3%₩920,329₩975,002₩1,038,314₩1,112,486₩1,200,573

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩8.5T
Enterprise value
₩8.4T
P/E
17.5×
P/B
5.6×
P/S
3.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,231,000₩765,000₩216,000₩127,000₩94,800
Market cap₩9.3T₩5.8T₩1.6T₩957B₩714B
P/E23.8×21.2×12.9×12.0×12.7×
P/B7.4×7.1×2.9×2.1×1.8×
P/S3.9×3.3×1.4×1.1×1.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.4%0.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samyang Foods17.5×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.6%
Nongshim12.1×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.3×1.0×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Lotte Wellfood12.7×0.5×0.3×—2.8%
Similar companies (median)12.7×0.7×0.4×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samyang Foods / 삼양식품 / 003230 / KRX:003230

Source: KRX statistical information