Samyang Foods삼양식품
003230 · KOSPI · ₩003230 · 삼양식품
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,242,060
vs the current price (₩1,133,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩9.3T
- Equity value
- ₩9.4T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩793,228
- −30.0%
- Base
- ₩1,242,060
- +9.6%
- Bull
- ₩1,978,986
- +74.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.2%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (37.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 16.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 9.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 12.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -1.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩2.8T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩76B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩16B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩17B
- Shares
- 7,533,015
- Share price
- ₩1,133,000
- Market cap
- ₩8.5T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.2T | ₩1.7T | ₩2.4T | ₩3.4T | ₩4.1T | ₩4.7T | ₩5.1T | ₩5.2T |
| Growth | 31.2% | 44.9% | 36.1% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩148B | ₩345B | ₩524B | ₩558B | ₩667B | ₩760B | ₩824B | ₩849B |
| EBIT margin | 12.4% | 19.9% | 22.3% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩107B | ₩250B | ₩380B | ₩404B | ₩483B | ₩551B | ₩598B | ₩616B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩341B | ₩407B | ₩464B | ₩504B | ₩519B |
| − Capital spending | ₩49B | ₩233B | ₩461B | ₩427B | ₩510B | ₩582B | ₩631B | ₩650B |
| − Working capital | −₩58B | −₩156B | ₩222B | −₩7.6B | −₩7.4B | −₩6.3B | −₩4.4B | −₩1.7B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩326B | ₩388B | ₩440B | ₩475B | ₩486B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩304B | ₩337B | ₩356B | ₩358B | ₩341B |
Terminal value ₩11T, worth ₩7.6T today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩203,212 a share)Now 5.58× | ₩358,1411.76× | ₩800,8743.94× | ₩1,883,1149.27× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩64,729 a share)Now 17.5× | ₩649,59210.0× | ₩1,141,17217.6× | ₩1,904,71629.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩72,863 a share)Now 15.5× | ₩731,22610.0× | ₩1,284,58317.6× | ₩2,144,08129.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩1,285,455 | ₩1,399,772 | ₩1,540,485 | ₩1,717,927 | ₩1,948,630 |
| 6.8% | ₩1,170,515 | ₩1,263,512 | ₩1,375,762 | ₩1,513,930 | ₩1,688,161 |
| 7.3% | ₩1,073,840 | ₩1,150,737 | ₩1,242,060 | ₩1,352,289 | ₩1,487,969 |
| 7.8% | ₩991,418 | ₩1,055,879 | ₩1,131,398 | ₩1,221,085 | ₩1,329,338 |
| 8.3% | ₩920,329 | ₩975,002 | ₩1,038,314 | ₩1,112,486 | ₩1,200,573 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩8.5T
- Enterprise value
- ₩8.4T
- P/E
- 17.5×
- P/B
- 5.6×
- P/S
- 3.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,231,000 | ₩765,000 | ₩216,000 | ₩127,000 | ₩94,800 |
| Market cap | ₩9.3T | ₩5.8T | ₩1.6T | ₩957B | ₩714B |
| P/E | 23.8× | 21.2× | 12.9× | 12.0× | 12.7× |
| P/B | 7.4× | 7.1× | 2.9× | 2.1× | 1.8× |
| P/S | 3.9× | 3.3× | 1.4× | 1.1× | 1.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samyang Foods | 17.5× | 5.6× | 3.1× | — | 0.4% |
| Orion | 10.5× | 1.1× | 1.2× | 5.3× | 3.1% |
| CJ Cheiljedang | — | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 3.6% |
| Nongshim | 12.1× | 0.8× | 0.7× | — | 1.5% |
| Otoki | 16.9× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 2.9% |
| Hite Jinro | 23.3× | 1.0× | 0.4× | 6.4× | 4.5% |
| Lotte Wellfood | 12.7× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 2.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.7× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 5.8× | 3.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Samyang Foods / 삼양식품 / 003230 / KRX:003230
Source: KRX statistical information