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Hanjin Heavy IND. & Const. Holdings

003480 · KOSPI · ₩003480 · 한진중공업홀딩스

₩4,345▼ ₩60 (1.36%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩23,871

vs the current price (₩4,345)

Enterprise value
₩1.1T
Equity value
₩705B
WACC
4.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 449% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,345, the model needs an operating margin of 2.4% every year (it uses 4.6%).
  • Or revenue growth −12.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 1.9× against a typical 4.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩23,871
+449.4%
Bull
₩85,232
+1,861.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -7.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.37, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩383B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.5B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩37B
Shares
29,529,812
Share price
₩4,345
Market cap
₩128B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.1T
Growth−13.7%−6.3%3.2%−5.9%−3.6%−1.4%0.8%3.0%
EBIT₩39B₩46B₩73B₩52B₩50B₩49B₩50B₩51B
EBIT margin3.2%3.9%6.1%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%4.6%
After-tax EBIT₩29B₩33B₩53B₩38B₩36B₩36B₩36B₩37B
+ Depreciation———₩29B₩28B₩28B₩28B₩29B
− Capital spending₩32B₩47B₩35B₩36B₩35B₩34B₩35B₩36B
− Working capital₩3.6B₩15B−₩67B₩5.4B₩3.1B₩1.2B−₩651M−₩2.5B
Free cash flow———₩25B₩27B₩28B₩30B₩33B
Discount factor———0.9530.9090.8670.8260.788
Present value———₩24B₩24B₩24B₩25B₩26B

Terminal value ₩1.3T, worth ₩1T today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩16,086 a share)Now 0.27×₩4,6290.29×₩5,1250.32×₩6,1050.38×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,270 a share)Now 1.91×₩4,6802.06×₩9,6184.24×₩57,25025.2×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩53 a share)Now 82.2×₩1092.06×₩2244.24×₩1,33225.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.9%₩24,480₩32,403₩44,542₩65,475₩110,158
4.4%₩18,642₩24,175₩32,035₩44,078₩64,844
4.9%₩14,311₩18,383₩23,871₩31,669₩43,615
5.4%₩10,970₩14,085₩18,124₩23,569₩31,304
5.9%₩8,315₩10,770₩13,860₩17,867₩23,268

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩128B
Enterprise value
₩496B
P/E
1.9×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,655₩3,680₩3,215₩3,895₩4,165
Market cap₩137B₩109B₩95B₩115B₩123B
P/E2.3×1.9×12.5×7.8×—
P/B0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.6%3.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hanjin Heavy IND. & Const. Holdings1.9×0.3×0.1×—2.8%
Korea Electric Power2.3×0.4×0.2×5.7×5.4%
Korea Gas6.0×0.3×0.1×8.6×3.1%
Korea District Heating2.3×0.3×0.2×4.8×8.6%
SGC Energy—0.7×0.2×—4.1%
Samchully3.2×0.2×0.1×—2.5%
Seoul City Gas11.4×0.2×0.1×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)3.2×0.3×0.2×5.7×3.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hanjin Heavy IND. & Const. Holdings / 한진중공업홀딩스 / 003480 / KRX:003480

Source: KRX statistical information