Shinhung신흥
004080 · KOSPI · ₩004080 · 신흥
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩9,608
vs the current price (₩14,400)
- Enterprise value
- ₩101B
- Equity value
- ₩88B
- WACC
- 7.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩4,901
- −66.0%
- Base
- ₩9,608
- −33.3%
- Bull
- ₩18,057
- +25.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.6%).
Revenue growth
- -4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 8.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 4.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 30.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩106B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩16B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩3.6B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩673M
- Shares
- 9,200,000
- Share price
- ₩14,400
- Market cap
- ₩132B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩112B | ₩102B | ₩103B | ₩101B | ₩98B | ₩98B | ₩99B | ₩102B |
| Growth | −4.9% | −9.5% | 0.8% | −4.6% | −2.7% | −0.8% | 1.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩11B | ₩6.3B | ₩7.1B | ₩8.7B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.4B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.7B |
| EBIT margin | 10.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩8.2B | ₩4.6B | ₩5.1B | ₩6.3B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.3B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩3.4B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩6B | ₩3.9B | ₩3.5B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.3B |
| − Working capital | ₩5.7B | −₩4.5B | ₩10B | −₩1.5B | −₩824M | −₩237M | ₩324M | ₩893M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7B | ₩6.2B | ₩5.5B | ₩5B | ₩4.6B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.934 | 0.873 | 0.816 | 0.762 | 0.712 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩6.5B | ₩5.4B | ₩4.5B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.3B |
Terminal value ₩109B, worth ₩78B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩12,685 a share)Now 1.14× | ₩14,0371.11× | ₩14,8971.17× | ₩18,9301.49× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩582 a share)Now 24.7× | ₩7,28912.5× | ₩9,77016.8× | ₩18,20731.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,708 a share)Now 8.43× | ₩21,38612.5× | ₩28,66516.8× | ₩53,41631.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | ₩10,491 | ₩11,285 | ₩12,274 | ₩13,539 | ₩15,217 |
| 6.5% | ₩9,425 | ₩10,043 | ₩10,793 | ₩11,728 | ₩12,924 |
| 7.0% | ₩8,537 | ₩9,025 | ₩9,608 | ₩10,317 | ₩11,199 |
| 7.5% | ₩7,784 | ₩8,176 | ₩8,636 | ₩9,186 | ₩9,854 |
| 8.0% | ₩7,139 | ₩7,457 | ₩7,826 | ₩8,259 | ₩8,777 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩132B
- Enterprise value
- ₩148B
- P/E
- 24.7×
- P/B
- 1.1×
- P/S
- 1.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩13,990 | ₩14,300 | ₩14,340 | ₩14,800 | ₩16,150 |
| Market cap | ₩129B | ₩132B | ₩132B | ₩136B | ₩149B |
| P/E | 45.6× | 25.2× | 14.3× | 16.5× | 11.0× |
| P/B | 1.1× | 1.1× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 1.5× |
| P/S | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.2× | 1.2× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 2.4% | 2.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shinhung | 24.7× | 1.1× | 1.3× | — | 2.3% |
| Samsung C&T | 18.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× | — | 0.9% |
| POSCO International | 10.5× | 1.2× | 0.3× | — | 3.8% |
| ISC | 45.4× | 6.1× | 12.7× | — | 0.5% |
| Youngone | 5.1× | 0.7× | 0.7× | — | 3.1% |
| Dong SUH Companies | 19.2× | 1.6× | 5.1× | — | 4.1% |
| Shinsegae | 13.9× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 2.1% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.3× | 1.0× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Shinhung / 신흥 / 004080 / KRX:004080
Source: KRX statistical information