KOSPI · 004170 · Retail & Trade · ₩004170

Shinsegae신세계

004170 · KOSPI · ₩004170 · 신세계

₩245,000 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩484,157

vs the current price (₩245,000)

Enterprise value: ₩9.5T
Equity value: ₩4.6T
WACC: 5.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 98% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩245,000, the model needs an operating margin of 6.5% every year (it uses 8.1%).
Or revenue growth −5.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 13.7× against a typical 7.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: ₩484,157; +97.6%
Bull: ₩1,626,726; +564.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.1%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-3.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-0.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 41.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin8.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation8.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending10.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital-10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
Beta0.7
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.55, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩7.2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩4T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.2T; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩2.1T
Shares: 9,445,181
Share price: ₩245,000
Market cap: ₩2.3T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩6.4T	₩6.6T	₩6.9T	₩6.9T	₩6.8T	₩6.7T	₩6.8T	₩7T
Growth	−18.6%	3.4%	5.5%	−3.9%	−2.2%	−0.5%	1.3%	3.0%
EBIT	₩640B	₩477B	₩480B	₩560B	₩548B	₩545B	₩552B	₩569B
EBIT margin	10.1%	7.3%	6.9%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%
After-tax EBIT	₩464B	₩346B	₩348B	₩406B	₩397B	₩395B	₩400B	₩412B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩567B	₩555B	₩552B	₩559B	₩576B
− Capital spending	₩617B	₩909B	₩501B	₩712B	₩697B	₩693B	₩702B	₩723B
− Working capital	₩275B	−₩159B	−₩62B	₩28B	₩15B	₩3.4B	−₩8.7B	−₩20B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩233B	₩240B	₩251B	₩266B	₩285B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.949	0.900	0.854	0.810	0.768
Present value	—	—	—	₩221B	₩216B	₩214B	₩215B	₩219B

Terminal value ₩11T, worth ₩8.4T today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩571,965 a share)Now 0.43×	₩188,9010.33×	₩258,8000.45×	₩380,2440.66×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩17,894 a share)Now 13.7×	₩79,3604.43×	₩125,1286.99×	₩1,136,31063.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩38,177 a share)Now 6.42×	₩169,3154.43×	₩266,9626.99×	₩2,424,33463.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.4%	₩504,261	₩675,766	₩918,200	₩1,286,917	₩1,915,107
4.9%	₩367,724	₩494,153	₩663,947	₩903,962	₩1,268,995
5.4%	₩262,187	₩358,987	₩484,157	₩652,259	₩889,880
5.9%	₩178,200	₩254,511	₩350,348	₩474,273	₩640,701
6.4%	₩109,797	₩171,367	₩246,920	₩341,806	₩464,499

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩2.3T
Enterprise value: ₩5.6T
P/E: 13.7×
P/B: 0.4×
P/S: 0.3×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 2.1%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩247,000	₩133,000	₩175,200	₩220,000	₩254,000
Market cap	₩2.3T	₩1.3T	₩1.7T	₩2.1T	₩2.4T
P/E	167.4×	11.7×	7.4×	5.1×	7.8×
P/B	0.5×	0.3×	0.4×	0.5×	0.6×
P/S	0.3×	0.2×	0.3×	0.3×	0.4×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	2.1%	3.4%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Shinsegae	13.7×	0.4×	0.3×	—	2.1%
Samsung C&T	17.5×	0.5×	1.1×	—	0.9%
POSCO International	10.6×	1.3×	0.3×	—	3.7%
ISC	41.4×	5.5×	11.5×	—	0.6%
Youngone	5.1×	0.7×	0.7×	—	3.1%
Dong SUH Companies	19.0×	1.6×	5.1×	—	4.1%
SK Gas	7.2×	0.6×	0.3×	—	3.6%
Similar companies (median)	14.0×	1.0×	0.9×	—	3.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shinsegae / 신세계 / 004170 / KRX:004170

Source: KRX statistical information