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National Plastic

004250 · KOSPI · ₩004250 · NPC

₩2,440▼ ₩100 (3.94%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩4,265

vs the current price (₩2,440)

Enterprise value
₩223B
Equity value
₩179B
WACC
5.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 75% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,440, the model needs an operating margin of 4.2% every year (it uses 5.2%).
  • Or revenue growth −10.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 6.5× against a typical 7.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩128
−94.8%
Base
₩4,265
+74.8%
Bull
₩13,067
+435.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -6.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 5.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 12%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 15%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩463B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩86B
+ Stakes and investments
₩42B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩250,696
Shares
42,000,000
incl. 5,280,000 preferred
Share price
₩2,440
Market cap
₩99B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩509B₩458B₩450B₩435B₩418B₩411B₩414B₩427B
Growth−6.6%−9.9%−1.7%−6.1%−3.9%−1.6%0.7%3.0%
EBIT₩30B₩10B₩24B₩23B₩22B₩21B₩22B₩22B
EBIT margin5.8%2.3%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%
After-tax EBIT₩21B₩7.6B₩17B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B
+ Depreciation———₩52B₩50B₩49B₩50B₩51B
− Capital spending₩64B₩79B₩68B₩65B₩63B₩62B₩62B₩64B
− Working capital₩943M−₩18B₩40B−₩3B−₩1.8B−₩702M₩302M₩1.3B
Free cash flow———₩6.3B₩5B₩3.9B₩2.9B₩2B
Discount factor———0.9450.8940.8450.7990.755
Present value———₩6B₩4.5B₩3.3B₩2.3B₩1.5B

Terminal value ₩272B, worth ₩206B today: 92% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,992 a share)Now 0.22×₩3,9180.36×₩6,2130.57×₩12,7971.16×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩375 a share)Now 6.50×₩8532.27×₩2,8697.65×₩4,78012.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩644 a share)Now 3.79×₩1,4652.27×₩4,9247.65×₩8,20512.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.8%₩4,689₩5,400₩6,367₩7,757₩9,930
5.3%₩3,952₩4,474₩5,154₩6,079₩7,408
5.8%₩3,371₩3,766₩4,265₩4,916₩5,799
6.3%₩2,902₩3,209₩3,586₩4,063₩4,684
6.8%₩2,516₩2,759₩3,051₩3,412₩3,867

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩90B
Enterprise value
₩176B
P/E
5.7×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,780₩4,295₩5,570₩5,820₩10,500
Market cap₩139B₩158B₩205B₩214B₩386B
P/E10.7×2.1×7.7×7.6×14.7×
P/B0.3×0.4×0.6×0.6×1.2×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.4×0.4×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.8%2.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
National Plastic5.7×0.2×0.2×—4.3%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea19.5×2.5×2.1×—0.7%
Dongwon Systems9.7×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Nexen Tire3.7×0.3×0.2×—3.4%
PI Advanced Materials12.0×1.2×1.6×4.8×2.4%
Similar companies (median)7.7×0.6×0.4×5.3×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: National Plastic / NPC / 004250 / KRX:004250

Source: KRX statistical information