KOSPI · 004310 · Biotech & Pharma · ₩004310

Hyundai Pharmaceutical현대약품

004310 · KOSPI · ₩004310 · 현대약품

₩6,850▲ ₩150 (2.24%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: ₩17B
Equity value: −₩23B
WACC: 7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩6,850, the model needs an operating margin of 10.3% every year (it uses 2.4%).
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: ₩2,229; −67.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.4%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 15.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 34.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 43.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin2.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending4.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital24.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
Beta0.73
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩202B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩42B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩2.5B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 32,000,000
Share price: ₩6,850
Market cap: ₩219B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩181B	₩176B	₩192B	₩214B	₩224B	₩234B	₩243B	₩250B
Growth	11.1%	−2.8%	9.1%	5.6%	5.0%	4.3%	3.7%	3.0%
EBIT	₩6.9B	₩181M	₩4.2B	₩5.1B	₩5.4B	₩5.6B	₩5.8B	₩6B
EBIT margin	3.8%	0.1%	2.2%	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
After-tax EBIT	₩5B	₩131M	₩3B	₩3.7B	₩3.9B	₩4.1B	₩4.2B	₩4.3B
+ Depreciation	₩2.3B	₩2.6B	₩3.1B	₩3.2B	₩3.4B	₩3.5B	₩3.6B	₩3.7B
− Capital spending	₩6.1B	₩11B	₩5.9B	₩9.2B	₩9.6B	₩10B	₩10B	₩11B
− Working capital	₩22B	₩1.6B	₩7.2B	₩2.8B	₩2.6B	₩2.4B	₩2.1B	₩1.8B
Free cash flow	−₩21B	−₩10B	−₩7B	−₩5.1B	−₩5B	−₩4.9B	−₩4.7B	−₩4.5B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.931	0.867	0.807	0.752	0.700
Present value	—	—	—	−₩4.7B	−₩4.4B	−₩3.9B	−₩3.5B	−₩3.1B

Terminal value ₩52B, worth ₩36B today: 219% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩4,002 a share)Now 1.71×	₩5,4571.36×	₩6,4111.60×	₩8,4002.10×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
8.4%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩219B
Enterprise value: ₩261B
P/E: 79.1×
P/B: 1.7×
P/S: 1.1×
EV/EBITDA: 25.0×
Dividend yield: 0.4%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩8,520	₩3,585	₩4,110	₩4,790	₩5,950
Market cap	₩273B	₩115B	₩132B	₩153B	₩190B
P/E	108.4×	—	21.5×	—	—
P/B	3.3×	1.5×	1.6×	1.8×	2.2×
P/S	1.4×	0.7×	0.7×	0.9×	1.4×
EV/EBITDA	43.8×	55.1×	16.6×	19.2×	—
Dividend yield	0.4%	0.8%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hyundai Pharmaceutical	79.1×	1.7×	1.1×	25.0×	0.4%
Samsung Biologics	32.1×	7.6×	14.0×	—	0.0%
Celltrion	27.8×	2.4×	8.9×	—	0.0%
Alteogen	78.8×	28.4×	59.9×	—	0.1%
Yuhan	24.8×	2.5×	2.6×	32.5×	0.8%
SK biopharmaceuticals	14.6×	5.7×	6.8×	—	0.0%
HLB	—	15.4×	54.6×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	27.8×	6.7×	11.5×	32.5×	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai Pharmaceutical / 현대약품 / 004310 / KRX:004310

Source: KRX statistical information