KOSPI · 004370 · Food & Beverage · ₩004370

Nongshim농심

004370 · KOSPI · ₩004370 · 농심

₩389,500▼ ₩3,500 (0.89%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩530,228

vs the current price (₩389,500)

Enterprise value: ₩2.3T
Equity value: ₩3.2T
WACC: 7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 36% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩389,500, the model needs an operating margin of 3.4% every year (it uses 5.0%).
Or revenue growth −10.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩3.7T, operating profit ₩233B (6.2% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩4.1T, operating profit ₩239B (5.9% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Today's P/E is 12.0× against a typical 15.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩302,433; −22.4%
Base: ₩530,228; +36.1%
Bull: ₩929,214; +138.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 13.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 23.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 33.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 43.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending2.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital5.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩3.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩879B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩4.5B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩445M
Shares: 6,082,642
Share price: ₩389,500
Market cap: ₩2.4T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩3.4T	₩3.4T	₩3.5T	₩3.8T	₩3.9T	₩4.1T	₩4.2T	₩4.3T
Growth	9.0%	0.8%	2.2%	3.9%	3.7%	3.5%	3.2%	3.0%
EBIT	₩212B	₩163B	₩184B	₩189B	₩196B	₩203B	₩210B	₩216B
EBIT margin	6.2%	4.7%	5.2%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
After-tax EBIT	₩154B	₩118B	₩133B	₩137B	₩142B	₩147B	₩152B	₩157B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩87B	₩90B	₩93B	₩96B	₩99B
− Capital spending	₩108B	₩125B	₩68B	₩110B	₩114B	₩118B	₩122B	₩125B
− Working capital	−₩413B	₩129B	₩66B	₩7.4B	₩7.3B	₩7.1B	₩6.8B	₩6.5B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩107B	₩111B	₩116B	₩120B	₩124B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.931	0.867	0.807	0.751	0.700
Present value	—	—	—	₩100B	₩97B	₩93B	₩90B	₩87B

Terminal value ₩2.7T, worth ₩1.9T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩494,887 a share)Now 0.79×	₩390,2740.79×	₩447,1130.90×	₩556,6671.12×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩32,367 a share)Now 12.0×	₩421,27913.0×	₩516,14515.9×	₩598,54818.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩35,995 a share)Now 10.8×	₩468,50413.0×	₩574,00515.9×	₩665,64518.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.4%	₩549,018	₩581,098	₩620,425	₩669,781	₩733,580
6.9%	₩513,542	₩539,498	₩570,716	₩608,985	₩657,013
7.4%	₩483,633	₩504,970	₩530,228	₩560,606	₩597,847
7.9%	₩458,080	₩475,856	₩496,620	₩521,200	₩550,762
8.4%	₩436,001	₩450,982	₩468,281	₩488,487	₩512,406

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩2.4T
Enterprise value: ₩1.4T
P/E: 12.0×
P/B: 0.8×
P/S: 0.7×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 1.5%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩432,500	₩374,000	₩407,000	₩357,000	₩318,500
Market cap	₩2.6T	₩2.3T	₩2.5T	₩2.2T	₩1.9T
P/E	15.5×	14.5×	14.4×	18.7×	19.4×
P/B	0.9×	0.9×	1.0×	0.9×	0.9×
P/S	0.7×	0.7×	0.7×	0.7×	0.7×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	1.4%	1.3%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Nongshim	12.0×	0.8×	0.7×	—	1.5%
Samyang Foods	18.4×	5.9×	3.3×	—	0.4%
Orion	10.5×	1.1×	1.2×	5.3×	3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang	—	0.3×	0.1×	—	3.5%
Otoki	16.9×	0.6×	0.3×	—	2.9%
Hite Jinro	23.0×	0.9×	0.4×	6.3×	4.5%
Lotte Wellfood	12.6×	0.5×	0.2×	—	2.8%
Similar companies (median)	16.9×	0.8×	0.4×	5.8×	3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Nongshim / 농심 / 004370 / KRX:004370

Source: KRX statistical information