Seoul Food IND서울식품
004410 · KOSPI · ₩004410 · 서울식품
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩6.6B
- Equity value
- −₩27B
- WACC
- 9.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,255, the model needs an operating margin of 10.8% every year (it uses −0.8%).
- Margins ranged from −6.6% to 2.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−0.8%).
Revenue growth
- 2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -0.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 15.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 1.4
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩66B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩20B
- Shares
- 39,677,463
- incl. 222,450 preferred
- Share price
- ₩1,255
- Market cap
- ₩50B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩65B | ₩59B | ₩69B | ₩67B | ₩69B | ₩71B | ₩73B | ₩75B |
| Growth | 0.7% | −9.6% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩587M | −₩2.2B | −₩460M | −₩539M | −₩552M | −₩566M | −₩582M | −₩599M |
| EBIT margin | 0.9% | −3.8% | −0.7% | −0.8% | −0.8% | −0.8% | −0.8% | −0.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩425M | −₩1.6B | −₩333M | −₩390M | −₩400M | −₩410M | −₩422M | −₩434M |
| + Depreciation | ₩4B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.8B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B | ₩4.6B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩2.7B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.9B | ₩3B |
| − Working capital | ₩1.2B | −₩1.7B | −₩1.4B | ₩225M | ₩250M | ₩278M | ₩307M | ₩338M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩799M | ₩797M | ₩797M | ₩798M | ₩800M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.913 | 0.834 | 0.761 | 0.695 | 0.634 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩729M | ₩665M | ₩607M | ₩555M | ₩508M |
Terminal value −₩15B, worth −₩9.7B today: 146% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩672 a share)Now 1.87× | ₩1,5712.34× | ₩1,9032.83× | ₩2,7984.16× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩50B
- Enterprise value
- ₩70B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 1.9×
- P/S
- 0.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- 17.8×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,490 | ₩1,480 | ₩1,920 | ₩2,010 | ₩3,300 |
| Market cap | ₩59B | ₩58B | ₩76B | ₩79B | ₩130B |
| P/E | — | — | — | 117.3× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | 2.5× | 2.8× | 2.8× | 5.0× |
| P/S | 0.9× | 1.0× | 1.2× | 1.2× | 2.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.0× | 51.4× | 22.1× | 18.7× | 185.5× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul Food IND | — | 1.9× | 0.8× | 17.8× | 0.0% |
| Samyang Foods | 17.6× | 5.6× | 3.1× | — | 0.4% |
| Orion | 10.6× | 1.1× | 1.2× | 5.3× | 3.1% |
| CJ Cheiljedang | — | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 3.5% |
| Nongshim | 12.0× | 0.8× | 0.6× | — | 1.5% |
| Otoki | 17.3× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 2.9% |
| Hite Jinro | 23.2× | 0.9× | 0.4× | 6.4× | 4.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.3× | 0.9× | 0.5× | 5.8× | 3.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Seoul Food IND / 서울식품 / 004410 / KRX:004410
Source: KRX statistical information