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Samhwa Crown & Closure

004450 · KOSPI · ₩004450 · 삼화왕관

₩26,500▼ ₩400 (1.49%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩40,226

vs the current price (₩26,500)

Enterprise value
₩138B
Equity value
₩87B
WACC
5.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 52% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩26,500, the model needs an operating margin of 3.5% every year (it uses 4.4%).
  • Or revenue growth −6.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 11.5× against a typical 11.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,487
−90.6%
Base
₩40,226
+51.8%
Bull
₩118,443
+347.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩166B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩52B
+ Stakes and investments
₩768M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
2,154,379
Share price
₩26,500
Market cap
₩57B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩158B₩167B₩163B₩169B₩172B₩176B₩181B₩187B
Growth2.2%5.9%−2.5%1.8%2.1%2.4%2.7%3.0%
EBIT₩6.9B₩11B₩6.8B₩7.4B₩7.6B₩7.8B₩8B₩8.2B
EBIT margin4.4%6.4%4.1%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%
After-tax EBIT₩5B₩7.7B₩4.9B₩5.4B₩5.5B₩5.6B₩5.8B₩6B
+ Depreciation₩9.2B₩9.2B₩9.1B₩9.5B₩9.7B₩9.9B₩10B₩10B
− Capital spending₩2.8B₩4.9B₩4.8B₩4.4B₩4.5B₩4.6B₩4.7B₩4.9B
− Working capital−₩16B₩8.9B₩321M₩325M₩386M₩451M₩519M₩593M
Free cash flow₩28B₩3.1B₩8.9B₩10B₩10B₩10B₩11B₩11B
Discount factor———0.9460.8940.8460.8000.757
Present value———₩9.6B₩9.2B₩8.9B₩8.6B₩8.3B

Terminal value ₩123B, worth ₩93B today: 68% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩55,206 a share)Now 0.48×₩28,1550.51×₩34,9230.63×₩37,4860.68×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,303 a share)Now 11.5×₩22,9849.98×₩26,50011.5×₩33,60914.6×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,445 a share)Now 18.3×₩14,4259.98×₩16,63211.5×₩21,09314.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.7%₩44,495₩50,836₩59,481₩71,979₩91,662
5.2%₩37,691₩42,329₩48,390₩56,654₩68,601
5.7%₩32,292₩35,795₩40,226₩46,016₩53,912
6.2%₩27,897₩30,609₩33,954₩38,185₩43,713
6.7%₩24,244₩26,387₩28,975₩32,166₩36,204

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩57B
Enterprise value
₩107B
P/E
11.5×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
7.2×
Dividend yield
4.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩29,300₩30,500₩31,900₩36,850₩43,500
Market cap₩63B₩66B₩69B₩79B₩94B
P/E14.7×8.2×——65.9×
P/B0.5×0.6×0.6×0.7×0.7×
P/S0.4×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.6×
EV/EBITDA7.0×6.0×4.1×26.5×—
Dividend yield4.1%3.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samhwa Crown & Closure11.5×0.5×0.3×7.2×4.5%
CS Wind373.3×1.3×0.6×—2.6%
Hankuk Carbon7.6×1.2×0.9×—2.1%
Taewoong60.7×0.7×1.2×19.5×0.0%
YG-15.1×0.8×0.5×—1.9%
Bosung Power Technology18.2×2.1×1.8×8.2×0.0%
HT Robotics39.3×2.8×1.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)28.7×1.2×1.0×13.8×0.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samhwa Crown & Closure / 삼화왕관 / 004450 / KRX:004450

Source: KRX statistical information