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Hyundai BNG Steel

004560 · KOSPI · ₩004560 · 현대비앤지스틸

₩10,330▼ ₩310 (2.91%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩19,203

vs the current price (₩10,330)

Enterprise value
₩277B
Equity value
₩290B
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 86% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩10,330, the model needs an operating margin of 2.1% every year (it uses 3.5%).
  • Margins ranged from −3.4% to 10.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 8.0× against a typical 8.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩7,734
−25.1%
Base
₩19,203
+85.9%
Bull
₩42,286
+309.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 33.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.66

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.49, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩768B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩56B
+ Stakes and investments
₩69B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
15,078,811
Share price
₩10,330
Market cap
₩156B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1T₩795B₩741B₩691B₩645B₩622B₩621B₩640B
Growth−18.4%−23.9%−6.8%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩35B₩31B₩26B₩24B₩23B₩22B₩22B₩22B
EBIT margin−3.4%3.9%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%
After-tax EBIT−₩26B₩22B₩19B₩18B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B
+ Depreciation———₩7.6B₩7.1B₩6.8B₩6.8B₩7B
− Capital spending₩15B₩11B₩9.9B₩9.7B₩9B₩8.7B₩8.7B₩9B
− Working capital−₩71B−₩6.1B−₩19B−₩26B−₩16B−₩7.6B−₩417M₩6.2B
Free cash flow———₩41B₩30B₩21B₩14B₩8.1B
Discount factor———0.9370.8790.8240.7720.724
Present value———₩39B₩26B₩18B₩11B₩5.8B

Terminal value ₩246B, worth ₩178B today: 64% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩35,087 a share)Now 0.29×₩11,2400.32×₩13,8030.39×₩19,0680.54×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,284 a share)Now 8.05×₩3,5642.78×₩11,3828.87×₩22,45917.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,406 a share)Now 7.35×₩3,9032.78×₩12,4668.87×₩24,59817.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%₩22,121₩22,637₩23,279₩24,106₩25,222
6.2%₩20,335₩20,637₩20,999₩21,446₩22,017
6.7%₩18,860₩19,020₩19,203₩19,417₩19,676
7.2%₩17,622₩17,684₩17,749₩17,816₩17,888
7.7%₩16,567₩16,562₩16,547₩16,520₩16,476

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩156B
Enterprise value
₩212B
P/E
8.0×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩10,940₩11,190₩14,610₩10,350₩16,450
Market cap₩165B₩169B₩220B₩156B₩248B
P/E11.1×6.8×—6.0×3.6×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.4×0.3×0.5×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.1×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.3%0.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hyundai BNG Steel8.0×0.3×0.2×—2.4%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai BNG Steel / 현대비앤지스틸 / 004560 / KRX:004560

Source: KRX statistical information