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Samchully

004690 · KOSPI · ₩004690 · 삼천리

₩119,800▲ ₩600 (0.50%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩371,983

vs the current price (₩119,800)

Enterprise value
₩1.6T
Equity value
₩1.3T
WACC
6.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 211% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩119,800, the model needs an operating margin of 1.4% every year (it uses 2.5%).
  • Or revenue growth −24.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 3.2× against a typical 4.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩371,983
+210.5%
Bull
₩1,230,373
+927.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩5.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩174B
+ Stakes and investments
₩132B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩210B
Shares
3,626,777
Share price
₩119,800
Market cap
₩434B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩5.7T₩5.1T₩5.3T₩5.2T₩5.1T₩5.1T₩5.2T₩5.3T
Growth−2.2%−9.6%3.0%−3.0%−1.5%0.0%1.5%3.0%
EBIT₩174B₩114B₩160B₩129B₩127B₩127B₩129B₩133B
EBIT margin3.1%2.2%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
After-tax EBIT₩127B₩83B₩116B₩94B₩92B₩92B₩94B₩96B
+ Depreciation———₩109B₩107B₩107B₩109B₩112B
− Capital spending₩115B₩172B₩122B₩134B₩132B₩132B₩134B₩138B
− Working capital₩22B−₩66B−₩134M−₩10B−₩4.9B₩0₩4.8B₩9.8B
Free cash flow———₩78B₩72B₩67B₩63B₩60B
Discount factor———0.9390.8820.8290.7790.732
Present value———₩73B₩63B₩55B₩49B₩44B

Terminal value ₩1.8T, worth ₩1.3T today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩497,823 a share)Now 0.24×₩102,3620.21×₩130,5920.26×₩340,3430.68×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩36,965 a share)Now 3.24×₩114,1293.09×₩150,5144.07×₩390,53810.6×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩33,772 a share)Now 3.55×₩104,2723.09×₩137,5144.07×₩356,80810.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.5%₩403,954₩446,778₩501,905₩575,590₩679,187
6.0%₩354,957₩387,728₩428,705₩481,453₩551,955
6.5%₩314,987₩340,641₩371,983₩411,170₩461,613
7.0%₩281,768₩302,225₩326,747₩356,704₩394,158
7.5%₩253,729₩270,293₩289,836₩313,261₩341,876

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩434B
Enterprise value
₩519B
P/E
3.2×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩128,500₩88,800₩95,000₩391,000₩90,800
Market cap₩466B₩322B₩345B₩1.4T₩329B
P/E4.2×3.2×2.9×21.3×4.6×
P/B0.3×0.2×0.2×1.0×0.2×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.2×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.3%3.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samchully3.2×0.2×0.1×—2.5%
Korea Electric Power2.3×0.4×0.2×5.7×5.4%
Korea Gas6.0×0.3×0.1×8.6×3.1%
Korea District Heating2.3×0.3×0.2×4.8×8.6%
SGC Energy—0.7×0.2×—3.9%
Seoul City Gas11.4×0.2×0.1×—0.0%
Daesung Energy6.5×0.5×0.2×—3.6%
Similar companies (median)6.0×0.4×0.2×5.7×3.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samchully / 삼천리 / 004690 / KRX:004690

Source: KRX statistical information