Dcksung

004830 · KOSPI · ₩004830 · 덕성

₩2,965▼ ₩15 (0.50%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,279

vs the current price (₩2,965)

Enterprise value
₩43B
Equity value
₩56B
WACC
6.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩555
−81.3%
Base
₩3,279
+10.6%
Bull
₩8,552
+188.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩140B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩8.8B
+ Stakes and investments
₩22B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
17,072,000
incl. 1,392,000 preferred
Share price
₩2,965
Market cap
₩52B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩108B₩125B₩146B₩144B₩149B₩153B₩158B₩163B
Growth−19.0%16.2%16.8%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.0%3.0%
EBIT₩5.1B₩8.9B₩6.2B₩5.9B₩6.1B₩6.3B₩6.5B₩6.7B
EBIT margin4.7%7.1%4.3%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
After-tax EBIT₩3.7B₩6.5B₩4.5B₩4.3B₩4.4B₩4.6B₩4.7B₩4.8B
+ Depreciation₩3.3B₩3.1B₩3.9B₩3.9B₩4B₩4.1B₩4.3B₩4.4B
− Capital spending₩15B₩4.6B₩7.2B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩12B₩12B
− Working capital−₩23B₩3.3B₩6.6B₩787M₩787M₩811M₩809M₩833M
Free cash flow₩15B₩1.7B−₩5.4B−₩3.4B−₩3.5B−₩3.6B−₩3.7B−₩3.8B
Discount factor———0.9360.8760.8200.7680.719
Present value———−₩3.2B−₩3.1B−₩3B−₩2.8B−₩2.7B

Terminal value ₩81B, worth ₩58B today: 134% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,766 a share)Now 0.51×₩4,3090.75×₩6,5701.14×₩10,3781.80×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩317 a share)Now 9.35×₩3,31410.4×₩5,49817.3×₩10,76733.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩87 a share)Now 34.0×₩91110.4×₩1,51217.3×₩2,96133.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.8%₩3,647₩3,957₩4,347₩4,851₩5,531
6.3%₩3,225₩3,460₩3,749₩4,111₩4,580
6.8%₩2,878₩3,061₩3,279₩3,547₩3,883
7.3%₩2,590₩2,733₩2,902₩3,104₩3,352
7.8%₩2,347₩2,461₩2,593₩2,748₩2,935

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩46B
Enterprise value
₩54B
P/E
8.6×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
7.9×
Dividend yield
3.9%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,875₩6,720₩7,860₩5,000₩15,100
Market cap₩76B₩105B₩123B₩78B₩237B
P/E13.9×15.5×21.9×31.2×40.0×
P/B0.8×1.1×1.4×0.9×2.8×
P/S0.5×0.8×1.1×0.6×2.1×
EV/EBITDA7.8×8.3×13.8×9.4×30.7×
Dividend yield2.4%1.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Dcksung8.6×0.5×0.3×7.9×3.9%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea19.5×2.5×2.1×—0.7%
Dongwon Systems9.7×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Nexen Tire3.7×0.3×0.2×—3.4%
PI Advanced Materials12.0×1.2×1.6×4.8×2.4%
Similar companies (median)7.7×0.6×0.4×5.3×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Dcksung / 덕성 / 004830 / KRX:004830

Source: KRX statistical information