Dcksung덕성
004830 · KOSPI · ₩004830 · 덕성
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩3,279
vs the current price (₩2,965)
- Enterprise value
- ₩43B
- Equity value
- ₩56B
- WACC
- 6.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩555
- −81.3%
- Base
- ₩3,279
- +10.6%
- Bull
- ₩8,552
- +188.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).
Revenue growth
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 17.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩140B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩8.8B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩22B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 17,072,000
- incl. 1,392,000 preferred
- Share price
- ₩2,965
- Market cap
- ₩52B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩108B | ₩125B | ₩146B | ₩144B | ₩149B | ₩153B | ₩158B | ₩163B |
| Growth | −19.0% | 16.2% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩5.1B | ₩8.9B | ₩6.2B | ₩5.9B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.3B | ₩6.5B | ₩6.7B |
| EBIT margin | 4.7% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩3.7B | ₩6.5B | ₩4.5B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.7B | ₩4.8B |
| + Depreciation | ₩3.3B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.9B | ₩3.9B | ₩4B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B |
| − Capital spending | ₩15B | ₩4.6B | ₩7.2B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B |
| − Working capital | −₩23B | ₩3.3B | ₩6.6B | ₩787M | ₩787M | ₩811M | ₩809M | ₩833M |
| Free cash flow | ₩15B | ₩1.7B | −₩5.4B | −₩3.4B | −₩3.5B | −₩3.6B | −₩3.7B | −₩3.8B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.936 | 0.876 | 0.820 | 0.768 | 0.719 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩3.2B | −₩3.1B | −₩3B | −₩2.8B | −₩2.7B |
Terminal value ₩81B, worth ₩58B today: 134% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩5,766 a share)Now 0.51× | ₩4,3090.75× | ₩6,5701.14× | ₩10,3781.80× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩317 a share)Now 9.35× | ₩3,31410.4× | ₩5,49817.3× | ₩10,76733.9× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩87 a share)Now 34.0× | ₩91110.4× | ₩1,51217.3× | ₩2,96133.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | ₩3,647 | ₩3,957 | ₩4,347 | ₩4,851 | ₩5,531 |
| 6.3% | ₩3,225 | ₩3,460 | ₩3,749 | ₩4,111 | ₩4,580 |
| 6.8% | ₩2,878 | ₩3,061 | ₩3,279 | ₩3,547 | ₩3,883 |
| 7.3% | ₩2,590 | ₩2,733 | ₩2,902 | ₩3,104 | ₩3,352 |
| 7.8% | ₩2,347 | ₩2,461 | ₩2,593 | ₩2,748 | ₩2,935 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩46B
- Enterprise value
- ₩54B
- P/E
- 8.6×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.9×
- Dividend yield
- 3.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩4,875 | ₩6,720 | ₩7,860 | ₩5,000 | ₩15,100 |
| Market cap | ₩76B | ₩105B | ₩123B | ₩78B | ₩237B |
| P/E | 13.9× | 15.5× | 21.9× | 31.2× | 40.0× |
| P/B | 0.8× | 1.1× | 1.4× | 0.9× | 2.8× |
| P/S | 0.5× | 0.8× | 1.1× | 0.6× | 2.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8× | 8.3× | 13.8× | 9.4× | 30.7× |
| Dividend yield | 2.4% | 1.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dcksung | 8.6× | 0.5× | 0.3× | 7.9× | 3.9% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology | 5.8× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 4.0% |
| Kumho Tire | 3.1× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Pum-Tech Korea | 19.5× | 2.5× | 2.1× | — | 0.7% |
| Dongwon Systems | 9.7× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 5.7× | 2.8% |
| Nexen Tire | 3.7× | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 3.4% |
| PI Advanced Materials | 12.0× | 1.2× | 1.6× | 4.8× | 2.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 7.7× | 0.6× | 0.4× | 5.3× | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Dcksung / 덕성 / 004830 / KRX:004830
Source: KRX statistical information