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Tway Holdings Incorporation

004870 · KOSPI · ₩004870 · 티웨이홀딩스

₩1,107▲ ₩41 (3.85%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩10B
Equity value
−₩19B
WACC
6.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,107, the model needs an operating margin of 67.8% every year (it uses −20.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −99.6% to 1.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-24% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-24% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-24% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-24% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-24% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 21.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩4B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩8.9B
Shares
22,632,698
Share price
₩1,107
Market cap
₩25B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩7.8B₩5.2B₩5B₩3.6B₩3.3B₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.3B
Growth−32.2%−32.6%−4.0%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩3B−₩5.2B−₩3.6B−₩717M−₩669M−₩646M−₩644M−₩664M
EBIT margin−38.7%−99.6%−71.6%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩2.2B−₩3.8B−₩2.6B−₩520M−₩485M−₩468M−₩467M−₩481M
+ Depreciation———₩22M₩20M₩19M₩19M₩20M
− Capital spending₩122M₩8M₩18M₩25M₩23M₩23M₩23M₩23M
− Working capital−₩2.3B−₩8.7B₩628M−₩86M−₩52M−₩25M−₩1.4M₩21M
Free cash flow———−₩438M−₩437M−₩446M−₩469M−₩505M
Discount factor———0.9390.8820.8290.7780.731
Present value———−₩411M−₩385M−₩370M−₩365M−₩370M

Terminal value −₩11B, worth −₩8.3B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,672 a share)Now 0.41×₩7890.30×₩1,1350.42×₩3,1891.19×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩484 a share)Now 2.29×₩3700.77×₩8191.69×₩5,17610.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.5%—————
6.0%—————
6.5%—————
7.0%—————
7.5%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩25B
Enterprise value
₩34B
P/E
—
P/B
0.4×
P/S
6.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,279₩3,216₩2,226₩2,497₩4,667
Market cap₩52B₩73B₩50B₩57B₩106B
P/E——11.0×0.7×—
P/B0.5×0.5×0.3×0.3×1.6×
P/S10.2×13.9×6.5×4.9×8.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Tway Holdings Incorporation—0.4×6.3×—0.0%
Tokai Carbon Korea30.7×4.3×7.0×—0.7%
Hanilcementco12.1×0.7×0.9×—6.0%
Wonik QnC13.8×1.2×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement16.9×0.8×0.9×6.0×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.5×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.2×0.3×0.4×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)13.0×0.7×0.8×6.0×2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Tway Holdings Incorporation / 티웨이홀딩스 / 004870 / KRX:004870

Source: KRX statistical information