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Chokwang Paint

004910 · KOSPI · ₩004910 · 조광페인트

₩3,005▲ ₩5 (0.17%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩170B
Equity value
−₩258B
WACC
4.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,005, the model needs an operating margin of 3.7% every year (it uses −3.2%).
  • Margins ranged from −9.6% to 1.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−3.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -5.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -3.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 12%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩206B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩123B
+ Stakes and investments
₩35B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩458M
Shares
12,800,000
Share price
₩3,005
Market cap
₩38B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩253B₩248B₩203B₩189B₩179B₩175B₩175B₩180B
Growth−2.9%−1.9%−18.3%−8.0%−5.3%−2.5%0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩3.7B₩2.4B−₩19B−₩6.1B−₩5.7B−₩5.6B−₩5.6B−₩5.8B
EBIT margin1.5%1.0%−9.6%−3.2%−3.2%−3.2%−3.2%−3.2%
After-tax EBIT₩2.7B₩1.7B−₩14B−₩4.4B−₩4.2B−₩4.1B−₩4.1B−₩4.2B
+ Depreciation———₩6.4B₩6.1B₩5.9B₩6B₩6.1B
− Capital spending₩13B₩13B₩4.6B₩8B₩7.5B₩7.3B₩7.4B₩7.6B
− Working capital−₩9.5B−₩9.2B−₩14B−₩2B−₩1.2B−₩538M₩42M₩631M
Free cash flow———−₩3.9B−₩4.4B−₩4.9B−₩5.5B−₩6.3B
Discount factor———0.9540.9100.8680.8280.789
Present value———−₩3.7B−₩4B−₩4.3B−₩4.6B−₩4.9B

Terminal value −₩188B, worth −₩148B today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩15,854 a share)Now 0.19×₩4,5520.29×₩7,3110.46×₩9,2370.58×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.8%—————
4.3%—————
4.8%—————
5.3%—————
5.8%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩38B
Enterprise value
₩160B
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,040₩5,960₩6,280₩7,520₩8,770
Market cap₩65B₩76B₩80B₩96B₩112B
P/E—4.8×16.9×——
P/B0.3×0.4×0.5×0.6×0.6×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.0%3.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Chokwang Paint—0.2×0.2×—6.7%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.8%
Hanwha Solutions—0.6×0.4×—0.0%
Hanwha6.3×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—2.1×2.0×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.9×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.3×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.3×0.4×0.4×8.9×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Chokwang Paint / 조광페인트 / 004910 / KRX:004910

Source: KRX statistical information