Citech씨아이테크
004920 · KOSPI · ₩004920 · 씨아이테크
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩12B
- Equity value
- −₩27B
- WACC
- 6.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩6,680, the model needs an operating margin of 17.7% every year (it uses −2.6%).
- Margins ranged from −12.5% to 4.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
- Today's P/E is 2.0× against a typical 13.8× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.6%).
Revenue growth
- -9.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-9.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- -2.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 7.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 26.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.58, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩24B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩15B
- Shares
- 5,217,987
- Share price
- ₩6,680
- Market cap
- ₩35B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩57B | ₩47B | ₩41B | ₩21B | ₩20B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩20B |
| Growth | 0.6% | −16.9% | −12.6% | −9.9% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩7.1B | −₩2B | ₩2B | −₩557M | −₩520M | −₩501M | −₩500M | −₩515M |
| EBIT margin | −12.5% | −4.3% | 4.8% | −2.6% | −2.6% | −2.6% | −2.6% | −2.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩5.2B | −₩1.5B | ₩1.5B | −₩404M | −₩377M | −₩364M | −₩363M | −₩374M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.2B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.2B | ₩2.8B | ₩5.5B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.4B | ₩1.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩3.3B | −₩20B | ₩20B | −₩624M | −₩380M | −₩185M | −₩10M | ₩153M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩80M | −₩276M | −₩448M | −₩622M | −₩804M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.940 | 0.884 | 0.831 | 0.781 | 0.734 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩75M | −₩244M | −₩372M | −₩486M | −₩590M |
Terminal value −₩14B, worth −₩10B today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩14,351 a share)Now 0.47× | ₩10,4910.73× | ₩15,9321.11× | ₩24,6471.72× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,318 a share)Now 2.01× | ₩7,7122.32× | ₩45,70213.8× | ₩113,73834.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩35B
- Enterprise value
- ₩49B
- P/E
- 2.0×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 1.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩10,689 | ₩11,299 | ₩14,699 | ₩8,760 | ₩15,249 |
| Market cap | ₩56B | ₩59B | ₩77B | ₩46B | ₩80B |
| P/E | 3.8× | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 0.8× | 1.1× | 1.4× | 0.9× | 1.7× |
| P/S | 1.3× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 0.8× | 1.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citech | 2.0× | 0.5× | 1.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Electronics | 8.7× | 2.3× | 2.7× | — | 0.8% |
| LG Electronics | 24.7× | 1.0× | 0.3× | — | 0.9% |
| Hanwha Vision | 16.4× | 2.1× | 1.0× | — | 0.0% |
| RFHIC | 37.6× | 3.4× | 6.1× | — | 0.9% |
| KMW | — | 4.9× | 8.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Intellian Technologies | 12.9× | 2.0× | 1.6× | — | 0.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.4× | 2.2× | 2.1× | — | 0.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Citech / 씨아이테크 / 004920 / KRX:004920
Source: KRX statistical information