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Sungshin Cement

004980 · KOSPI · ₩004980 · 성신양회

₩7,340▼ ₩130 (1.74%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩37,178

vs the current price (₩7,340)

Enterprise value
₩1.3T
Equity value
₩939B
WACC
5.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 407% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,340, the model needs an operating margin of 1.9% every year (it uses 3.8%).
  • Or revenue growth −21.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 5.9× against a typical 10.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩37,178
+406.5%
Bull
₩127,387
+1,635.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 5.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 13.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩413B
+ Stakes and investments
₩34B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩5.8B
Shares
25,251,718
incl. 735,645 preferred
Share price
₩7,340
Market cap
₩186B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.5T₩1.6T₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.8T
Growth8.0%4.4%4.6%5.7%5.0%4.3%3.7%3.0%
EBIT₩73B₩53B₩44B₩58B₩61B₩63B₩66B₩68B
EBIT margin6.6%4.6%3.6%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%
After-tax EBIT₩53B₩39B₩32B₩42B₩44B₩46B₩48B₩49B
+ Depreciation———₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
− Capital spending₩451M₩67M₩67M₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
− Working capital₩34B₩46B−₩56B₩11B₩10B₩9.3B₩8.4B₩7.1B
Free cash flow———₩31B₩34B₩37B₩39B₩42B
Discount factor———0.9520.9070.8630.8220.783
Present value———₩29B₩31B₩32B₩32B₩33B

Terminal value ₩1.5T, worth ₩1.2T today: 88% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩23,620 a share)Now 0.31×₩8,2500.35×₩11,3960.48×₩16,7930.71×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,241 a share)Now 5.91×₩3,3432.69×₩13,15510.6×₩52,44042.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,055 a share)Now 2.40×₩8,2272.69×₩32,37510.6×₩129,05942.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.0%₩41,782₩50,530₩63,579₩85,162₩127,774
4.5%₩33,474₩39,443₩47,762₩60,170₩80,692
5.0%₩27,235₩31,507₩37,178₩45,080₩56,868
5.5%₩22,379₩25,546₩29,600₩34,983₩42,483
6.0%₩18,493₩20,905₩23,908₩27,752₩32,856

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩180B
Enterprise value
₩593B
P/E
5.7×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩9,500₩7,450₩8,500₩9,540₩16,550
Market cap₩233B₩183B₩208B₩234B₩406B
P/E9.0×4.0×3.1×—63.0×
P/B0.4×0.3×0.4×0.6×1.0×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.2×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.7%4.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Sungshin Cement5.7×0.3×0.1×—4.8%
Tokai Carbon Korea30.7×4.3×7.0×—0.7%
Hanilcementco12.0×0.7×0.9×—6.0%
Wonik QnC14.7×1.3×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement17.0×0.8×0.9×6.0×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.6×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.0×0.3×0.4×—3.6%
Similar companies (median)13.3×0.7×0.8×6.0×2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Sungshin Cement / 성신양회 / 004980 / KRX:004980

Source: KRX statistical information