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SGC Energy

005090 · KOSPI · ₩005090 · SGC에너지

₩31,800▼ ₩1,500 (4.50%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩91,461

vs the current price (₩31,800)

Enterprise value
₩3.1T
Equity value
₩1.3T
WACC
4.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 188% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩31,800, the model needs an operating margin of 4.6% every year (it uses 6.1%).
  • Or revenue growth −7.5 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩91,461
+187.6%
Bull
₩408,653
+1,185.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -4.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 14.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.31, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.8T
+ Stakes and investments
₩60B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩61B
Shares
14,409,333
Share price
₩31,800
Market cap
₩458B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩3T₩2.4T₩2.5T₩2.3T₩2.2T₩2.2T₩2.3T₩2.3T
Growth7.1%−22.1%4.5%−4.5%−2.6%−0.7%1.1%3.0%
EBIT₩107B₩190B₩96B₩141B₩137B₩136B₩137B₩142B
EBIT margin3.5%8.1%3.9%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%
After-tax EBIT₩77B₩137B₩69B₩102B₩99B₩99B₩100B₩103B
+ Depreciation———₩48B₩47B₩47B₩47B₩49B
− Capital spending₩130B₩46B₩40B₩60B₩58B₩58B₩59B₩60B
− Working capital₩24B₩88B₩72B−₩16B−₩8.8B−₩2.3B₩3.6B₩9.9B
Free cash flow———₩106B₩97B₩90B₩85B₩81B
Discount factor———0.9550.9120.8710.8310.794
Present value———₩102B₩88B₩78B₩70B₩64B

Terminal value ₩3.4T, worth ₩2.7T today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩48,214 a share)Now 0.66×₩20,8640.43×₩27,9260.58×₩58,1481.21×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩2,471 a share)Now 12.9×₩9,6193.89×₩12,6695.13×₩22,1258.96×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.7%₩106,793₩148,841₩215,172₩335,464₩620,983
4.2%₩71,084₩99,010₩139,431₩203,195₩318,830
4.7%₩44,960₩64,623₩91,461₩130,305₩191,581
5.2%₩25,020₩39,463₩58,354₩84,136₩121,453
5.7%₩9,302₩20,258₩34,129₩52,270₩77,030

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩458B
Enterprise value
₩2.2T
P/E
—
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩21,950₩24,700₩27,300₩30,950₩47,300
Market cap₩316B₩356B₩393B₩446B₩682B
P/E—5.5×9.3×4.0×11.4×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.5×0.6×1.1×
P/S0.1×0.2×0.1×0.2×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.9%6.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SGC Energy—0.7×0.2×—4.1%
Korea Electric Power2.3×0.4×0.2×5.7×5.4%
Korea Gas6.0×0.3×0.1×8.6×3.1%
Korea District Heating2.3×0.3×0.2×4.8×8.6%
Samchully3.2×0.2×0.1×—2.5%
Seoul City Gas11.4×0.2×0.1×—0.0%
Daesung Energy6.5×0.5×0.2×—3.6%
Similar companies (median)4.6×0.3×0.2×5.7×3.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SGC Energy / SGC에너지 / 005090 / KRX:005090

Source: KRX statistical information