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Lotte Chilsung Beverage

005300 · KOSPI · ₩005300 · 롯데칠성

₩95,900▲ ₩900 (0.95%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩418,204

vs the current price (₩95,900)

Enterprise value
₩5.6T
Equity value
₩4.2T
WACC
5.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 336% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩95,900, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses 5.7%).
  • Or revenue growth −17.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 14.7× against a typical 13.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩80,302
−16.3%
Base
₩418,204
+336.1%
Bull
₩1,146,645
+1,095.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 11.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 5.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 6.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.5T
+ Stakes and investments
₩166B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩83B
Shares
10,054,194
incl. 775,310 preferred
Share price
₩95,900
Market cap
₩939B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩3.2T₩4T₩4T₩4.5T₩4.9T₩5.3T₩5.6T₩5.8T
Growth13.5%24.8%−1.3%11.8%9.6%7.4%5.2%3.0%
EBIT₩211B₩185B₩167B₩257B₩282B₩303B₩319B₩328B
EBIT margin6.5%4.6%4.2%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%
After-tax EBIT₩153B₩134B₩121B₩187B₩205B₩220B₩231B₩238B
+ Depreciation———₩239B₩262B₩282B₩296B₩305B
− Capital spending₩206B₩305B₩232B₩298B₩327B₩351B₩369B₩380B
− Working capital−₩422B₩460B−₩31B−₩9.5B−₩8.7B−₩7.3B−₩5.5B−₩3.4B
Free cash flow———₩137B₩149B₩158B₩164B₩166B
Discount factor———0.9490.9010.8550.8120.770
Present value———₩130B₩134B₩135B₩133B₩128B

Terminal value ₩6.4T, worth ₩4.9T today: 88% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩154,751 a share)Now 0.62×₩107,5040.69×₩139,0850.90×₩186,0641.20×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩6,503 a share)Now 14.7×₩54,7168.41×₩86,81013.3×₩139,53121.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩10,194 a share)Now 9.41×₩85,7698.41×₩136,07913.3×₩218,72221.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.4%₩436,175₩529,222₩661,814₩865,948₩1,220,878
4.9%₩359,323₩427,094₩518,626₩649,060₩849,871
5.4%₩300,180₩351,531₩418,204₩508,254₩636,576
5.9%₩253,273₩293,379₩343,902₩409,501₩498,100
6.4%₩215,172₩247,256₩286,719₩336,432₩400,979

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩890B
Enterprise value
₩2.2T
P/E
13.6×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩139,200₩112,000₩146,600₩176,000₩133,500
Market cap₩1.3T₩1T₩1.4T₩1.6T₩1.2T
P/E27.3×17.6×8.2×12.5×9.0×
P/B0.8×0.7×0.9×1.2×0.9×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.4×0.6×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.4%3.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Lotte Chilsung Beverage13.6×0.6×0.2×—3.5%
Samyang Foods18.4×5.9×3.3×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.0×0.9×0.4×6.3×4.5%
Similar companies (median)16.9×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Lotte Chilsung Beverage / 롯데칠성 / 005300 / KRX:005300

Source: KRX statistical information