Hyundai Motor

005380 · KOSPI · ₩HMC · 현대차

₩296,000▲ ₩5,500 (1.89%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩326,107

vs the current price (₩296,000)

Enterprise value
₩222T
Equity value
₩86T
WACC
5.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩326,107
+10.2%
Bull
₩1,320,334
+346.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 9.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 25.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 1.05

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩189T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩164T
+ Stakes and investments
₩41T
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩13T
Shares
262,884,502
incl. 59,418,010 preferred
Share price
₩296,000
Market cap
₩70T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩163T₩175T₩186T₩206T₩222T₩236T₩247T₩254T
Growth14.1%7.7%6.3%9.3%7.7%6.2%4.6%3.0%
EBIT₩15T₩14T₩11T₩14T₩15T₩16T₩17T₩17T
EBIT margin9.3%8.1%6.2%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%
After-tax EBIT₩11T₩10T₩8.3T₩10T₩11T₩11T₩12T₩12T
+ Depreciation———₩9.5T₩10T₩11T₩11T₩12T
− Capital spending₩8.9T₩10T₩11T₩12T₩13T₩14T₩14T₩15T
− Working capital−₩2.2T₩8.8T₩7.3T₩4.4T₩4T₩3.5T₩2.7T₩1.9T
Free cash flow———₩3.1T₩4.1T₩5.2T₩6.3T₩7.4T
Discount factor———0.9450.8930.8440.7980.754
Present value———₩3T₩3.7T₩4.4T₩5T₩5.6T

Terminal value ₩266T, worth ₩201T today: 90% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩465,330 a share)Now 0.64×₩234,2710.50×₩293,3820.63×₩403,5000.87×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩30,989 a share)Now 9.55×₩133,1274.30×₩185,0485.97×₩380,77812.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩25,933 a share)Now 11.4×₩111,4074.30×₩154,8585.97×₩318,65512.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.8%₩409,247₩512,231₩651,677₩851,383₩1,161,624
5.3%₩292,298₩367,011₩464,093₩595,535₩783,765
5.8%₩199,917₩255,779₩326,107₩417,481₩541,183
6.3%₩125,144₩167,904₩220,405₩286,492₩372,346
6.8%₩63,418₩96,769₩136,888₩186,138₩248,124

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩60T
Enterprise value
₩223T
P/E
7.4×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩296,500₩212,000₩203,500₩151,000₩209,000
Market cap₩60T₩43T₩41T₩31T₩43T
P/E6.4×3.4×3.5×4.2×8.6×
P/B0.5×0.4×0.4×0.4×0.6×
P/S0.3×0.2×0.3×0.2×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.4%5.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hyundai Motor7.4×0.5×0.3×—3.4%
KIA6.0×0.7×0.4×—6.3%
KG Mobility5.5×0.3×0.1×—0.0%
KG Eco Solution1.9×0.2×0.0×—3.0%
Autech—0.6×0.1×—0.0%
DYP3.3×0.3×0.1×—2.6%
Similar companies (median)4.4×0.3×0.1×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai Motor / 현대차 / 005380 / KRX:005380

Source: KRX statistical information