Hyundai Motor현대차
005380 · KOSPI · ₩HMC · 현대차
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩326,107
vs the current price (₩296,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩222T
- Equity value
- ₩86T
- WACC
- 5.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩326,107
- +10.2%
- Bull
- ₩1,320,334
- +346.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.7%).
Revenue growth
- 9.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 5.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 25.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 1.05
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩189T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩164T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩41T
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩13T
- Shares
- 262,884,502
- incl. 59,418,010 preferred
- Share price
- ₩296,000
- Market cap
- ₩70T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩163T | ₩175T | ₩186T | ₩206T | ₩222T | ₩236T | ₩247T | ₩254T |
| Growth | 14.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩15T | ₩14T | ₩11T | ₩14T | ₩15T | ₩16T | ₩17T | ₩17T |
| EBIT margin | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩11T | ₩10T | ₩8.3T | ₩10T | ₩11T | ₩11T | ₩12T | ₩12T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩9.5T | ₩10T | ₩11T | ₩11T | ₩12T |
| − Capital spending | ₩8.9T | ₩10T | ₩11T | ₩12T | ₩13T | ₩14T | ₩14T | ₩15T |
| − Working capital | −₩2.2T | ₩8.8T | ₩7.3T | ₩4.4T | ₩4T | ₩3.5T | ₩2.7T | ₩1.9T |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩3.1T | ₩4.1T | ₩5.2T | ₩6.3T | ₩7.4T |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.945 | 0.893 | 0.844 | 0.798 | 0.754 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩3T | ₩3.7T | ₩4.4T | ₩5T | ₩5.6T |
Terminal value ₩266T, worth ₩201T today: 90% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩465,330 a share)Now 0.64× | ₩234,2710.50× | ₩293,3820.63× | ₩403,5000.87× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩30,989 a share)Now 9.55× | ₩133,1274.30× | ₩185,0485.97× | ₩380,77812.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩25,933 a share)Now 11.4× | ₩111,4074.30× | ₩154,8585.97× | ₩318,65512.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8% | ₩409,247 | ₩512,231 | ₩651,677 | ₩851,383 | ₩1,161,624 |
| 5.3% | ₩292,298 | ₩367,011 | ₩464,093 | ₩595,535 | ₩783,765 |
| 5.8% | ₩199,917 | ₩255,779 | ₩326,107 | ₩417,481 | ₩541,183 |
| 6.3% | ₩125,144 | ₩167,904 | ₩220,405 | ₩286,492 | ₩372,346 |
| 6.8% | ₩63,418 | ₩96,769 | ₩136,888 | ₩186,138 | ₩248,124 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩60T
- Enterprise value
- ₩223T
- P/E
- 7.4×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩296,500 | ₩212,000 | ₩203,500 | ₩151,000 | ₩209,000 |
| Market cap | ₩60T | ₩43T | ₩41T | ₩31T | ₩43T |
| P/E | 6.4× | 3.4× | 3.5× | 4.2× | 8.6× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.6× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.4% | 5.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Motor | 7.4× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 3.4% |
| KIA | 6.0× | 0.7× | 0.4× | — | 6.3% |
| KG Mobility | 5.5× | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 0.0% |
| KG Eco Solution | 1.9× | 0.2× | 0.0× | — | 3.0% |
| Autech | — | 0.6× | 0.1× | — | 0.0% |
| DYP | 3.3× | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 2.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 4.4× | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hyundai Motor / 현대차 / 005380 / KRX:005380
Source: KRX statistical information