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Cosmochemicalco

005420 · KOSPI · ₩005420 · 코스모화학

₩9,540▼ ₩20 (0.21%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩78B
Equity value
−₩823B
WACC
6.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,540, the model needs an operating margin of 11.6% every year (it uses 1.5%).
  • Margins ranged from −2.4% to 5.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 8.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 25.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.76

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.64, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩715B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩354B
+ Stakes and investments
₩8.7B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩399B
Shares
38,408,228
Share price
₩9,540
Market cap
₩366B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩799B₩749B₩664B₩697B₩688B₩690B₩701B₩722B
Growth11.2%−6.2%−11.4%−2.6%−1.2%0.2%1.6%3.0%
EBIT₩3B−₩2B−₩16B₩10B₩10B₩10B₩11B₩11B
EBIT margin0.4%−0.3%−2.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
After-tax EBIT₩2.2B−₩1.5B−₩12B₩7.6B₩7.5B₩7.5B₩7.6B₩7.8B
+ Depreciation₩23B₩29B₩26B₩25B₩25B₩25B₩25B₩26B
− Capital spending——₩55B₩58B₩57B₩57B₩58B₩60B
− Working capital₩16B₩103B−₩116B−₩4.8B−₩2.2B₩355M₩2.8B₩5.4B
Free cash flow——₩75B−₩20B−₩23B−₩25B−₩28B−₩31B
Discount factor———0.9420.8880.8370.7880.743
Present value———−₩19B−₩20B−₩21B−₩22B−₩23B

Terminal value ₩38B, worth ₩28B today: -36% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,106 a share)Now 1.56×₩14,2212.33×₩19,9893.27×₩46,4467.61×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.1%—————
5.6%—————
6.1%—————
6.6%—————
7.1%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩366B
Enterprise value
₩720B
P/E
—
P/B
1.6×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
25.2×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩14,350₩15,300₩39,000₩20,550₩14,418
Market cap₩551B₩588B₩1.5T₩789B₩554B
P/E———70.2×50.9×
P/B2.5×2.6×5.1×3.7×3.6×
P/S0.8×0.8×1.9×1.1×1.1×
EV/EBITDA87.3×36.2×63.3×14.8×14.0×
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Cosmochemicalco—1.6×0.5×25.2×0.0%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha5.9×0.4×0.1×—1.5%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.9×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.3×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.3×0.4×0.4×8.9×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Cosmochemicalco / 코스모화학 / 005420 / KRX:005420

Source: KRX statistical information