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POSCO Holdings

005490 · KOSPI · ₩POSCOHLDGS · POSCO홀딩스

₩282,000▲ ₩6,000 (2.17%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩18T
Equity value
−₩6.3T
WACC
6.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩282,000, the model needs an operating margin of 6.7% every year (it uses 4.1%).
  • Margins ranged from 2.6% to 12.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 16.6× against a typical 19.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩460,974
+63.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -6.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 9.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 36.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.73

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.6, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩71T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩24T
+ Stakes and investments
₩6.3T
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩6.7T
Shares
79,241,527
Share price
₩282,000
Market cap
₩22T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩77T₩73T₩69T₩67T₩64T₩63T₩63T₩65T
Growth−9.0%−5.8%−4.9%−6.6%−4.2%−1.8%0.6%3.0%
EBIT₩3.5T₩2.2T₩1.8T₩2.7T₩2.6T₩2.6T₩2.6T₩2.7T
EBIT margin4.6%3.0%2.6%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
After-tax EBIT₩2.6T₩1.6T₩1.3T₩2T₩1.9T₩1.9T₩1.9T₩1.9T
+ Depreciation₩3.3T₩3.5T₩3.7T₩3.2T₩3.1T₩3T₩3T₩3.1T
− Capital spending₩7.2T₩8.2T₩6.2T₩6.6T₩6.3T₩6.2T₩6.2T₩6.4T
− Working capital₩315B−₩3T−₩178B−₩1.7T−₩1T−₩418B₩137B₩688B
Free cash flow−₩1.6T−₩15B−₩1T₩296B−₩339B−₩914B−₩1.5T−₩2.1T
Discount factor———0.9430.8900.8390.7910.747
Present value———₩279B−₩302B−₩767B−₩1.2T−₩1.5T

Terminal value ₩29T, worth ₩22T today: 119% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩725,195 a share)Now 0.39×₩269,8700.37×₩329,3360.45×₩453,2570.63×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩17,004 a share)Now 16.6×₩53,3143.14×₩334,22619.7×₩790,86146.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩34,565 a share)Now 8.16×₩108,3743.14×₩679,39419.7×₩1,607,61246.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.0%—₩5,167₩27,377₩57,936₩103,044
5.5%————₩4,617
6.0%—————
6.5%—————
7.0%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩22T
Enterprise value
₩46T
P/E
16.6×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
7.8×
Dividend yield
3.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩305,000₩253,500₩499,500₩276,500₩274,500
Market cap₩24T₩20T₩40T₩22T₩22T
P/E36.7×18.3×23.3×7.0×3.3×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.7×0.4×0.4×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.5×0.3×0.3×
EV/EBITDA8.3×6.9×8.6×4.7×3.1×
Dividend yield3.3%3.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
POSCO Holdings16.6×0.4×0.3×7.8×3.5%
Korea Zinc18.9×1.6×0.9×—2.2%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.3×0.7×0.3×6.0×2.8%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.6×0.6×0.3×9.6×3.8%
Sama Aluminium—4.3×3.2×—0.0%
HVM1,268.4×5.6×8.8×61.7×0.0%
Similar companies (median)15.8×1.2×0.6×9.6×2.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: POSCO Holdings / POSCO홀딩스 / 005490 / KRX:005490

Source: KRX statistical information