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GS Retail

007070 · KOSPI · ₩007070 · GS리테일

₩22,600▲ ₩600 (2.73%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩42,159

vs the current price (₩22,600)

Enterprise value
₩5.4T
Equity value
₩3.5T
WACC
5.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 87% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩22,600, the model needs an operating margin of 1.8% every year (it uses 2.4%).
  • Or revenue growth −7.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 14.6× against a typical 24.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩42,159
+86.5%
Bull
₩183,908
+713.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -2.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.25, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩12T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩2.2T
+ Stakes and investments
₩284B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
83,607,415
Share price
₩22,600
Market cap
₩1.9T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩12T₩12T₩12T₩13T₩13T₩13T₩13T₩14T
Growth3.4%0.1%2.8%2.1%2.3%2.6%2.8%3.0%
EBIT₩394B₩239B₩292B₩300B₩307B₩315B₩324B₩334B
EBIT margin3.4%2.1%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
After-tax EBIT₩286B₩173B₩212B₩218B₩223B₩228B₩235B₩242B
+ Depreciation———₩313B₩320B₩328B₩337B₩348B
− Capital spending₩396B₩446B₩234B₩388B₩397B₩407B₩418B₩431B
− Working capital₩590B₩364B₩63B−₩7.5B−₩8.3B−₩9.6B−₩11B−₩12B
Free cash flow———₩150B₩154B₩159B₩165B₩170B
Discount factor———0.9480.8980.8510.8060.764
Present value———₩142B₩138B₩136B₩133B₩130B

Terminal value ₩6.2T, worth ₩4.8T today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩40,121 a share)Now 0.56×₩14,8060.37×₩18,1980.45×₩22,6550.56×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,551 a share)Now 14.6×₩3,6842.38×₩38,14924.6×₩65,03741.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,118 a share)Now 7.25×₩7,4062.38×₩76,69924.6×₩130,75941.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.5%₩43,473₩54,017₩68,738₩90,725₩127,104
5.0%₩34,970₩42,812₩53,250₩67,822₩89,586
5.5%₩28,351₩34,396₩42,159₩52,491₩66,916
6.0%₩23,054₩27,844₩33,828₩41,513₩51,742
6.5%₩18,720₩22,601₩27,344₩33,268₩40,875

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.9T
Enterprise value
₩2.2T
P/E
14.6×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩20,100₩16,500₩19,714₩24,076₩26,000
Market cap₩1.7T₩1.4T₩1.6T₩2T₩2.2T
P/E38.7×541.5×93.2×42.3×2.7×
P/B0.5×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.5×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.2×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.0%3.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
GS Retail14.6×0.6×0.2×—2.7%
Samsung C&T18.1×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.3×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC42.6×5.7×11.9×—0.5%
Youngone5.2×0.7×0.7×—3.0%
Dong SUH Companies19.6×1.7×5.3×—4.0%
SK Gas7.4×0.6×0.3×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)14.2×1.0×0.9×—3.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: GS Retail / GS리테일 / 007070 / KRX:007070

Source: KRX statistical information