KOSPI · 008420 · Steel & Materials · ₩008420

Moonbae Steel문배철강

008420 · KOSPI · ₩008420 · 문배철강

₩1,912▼ ₩4 (0.21%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: −₩19B
Equity value: −₩7.2B
WACC: 7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩1,912, the model needs an operating margin of 3.1% every year (it uses 0.2%).
Margins ranged from −2.1% to 10.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
83% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
Today's P/E is 4.7× against a typical 4.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: ₩1,431; −25.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.2%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 4-0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin0.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation0.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
Working capital22.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩152B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩12B
Shares: 20,503,505
Share price: ₩1,912
Market cap: ₩39B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩164B	₩140B	₩138B	₩137B	₩127B	₩123B	₩123B	₩126B
Growth	−14.9%	−14.3%	−1.7%	−10.0%	−6.7%	−3.5%	−0.2%	3.0%
EBIT	−₩3.4B	−₩2.1B	−₩959M	₩273M	₩255M	₩246M	₩245M	₩253M
EBIT margin	−2.1%	−1.5%	−0.7%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
After-tax EBIT	−₩2.5B	−₩1.5B	−₩696M	₩198M	₩185M	₩178M	₩178M	₩183M
+ Depreciation	₩411M	₩519M	₩537M	₩410M	₩382M	₩369M	₩368M	₩379M
− Capital spending	—	—	—	₩5.5B	₩5.1B	₩4.9B	₩4.9B	₩5.1B
− Working capital	−₩2.3B	−₩9.5B	₩8.2B	−₩3.4B	−₩2.1B	−₩1B	−₩56M	₩835M
Free cash flow	—	—	—	−₩1.4B	−₩2.5B	−₩3.4B	−₩4.3B	−₩5.3B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.932	0.868	0.809	0.754	0.703
Present value	—	—	—	−₩1.3B	−₩2.1B	−₩2.7B	−₩3.2B	−₩3.7B

Terminal value −₩8.2B, worth −₩5.8B today: 31% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩9,692 a share)Now 0.20×	₩2,1730.22×	₩3,0790.32×	₩5,5180.57×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩407 a share)Now 4.70×	₩1,0872.67×	₩1,6344.02×	₩3,0587.52×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩694 a share)Now 2.75×	₩1,8542.67×	₩2,7894.02×	₩5,2187.52×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
8.3%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩39B
Enterprise value: ₩27B
P/E: 4.7×
P/B: 0.2×
P/S: 0.3×
EV/EBITDA: 10.7×
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩2,090	₩2,320	₩3,120	₩3,220	₩3,830
Market cap	₩43B	₩48B	₩64B	₩66B	₩79B
P/E	7.3×	7.2×	3.4×	2.5×	3.1×
P/B	0.2×	0.3×	0.3×	0.4×	0.5×
P/S	0.3×	0.3×	0.4×	0.3×	0.4×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	22.1×	5.4×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Moonbae Steel	4.7×	0.2×	0.3×	10.7×	0.0%
POSCO Holdings	16.1×	0.4×	0.3×	7.7×	3.7%
Korea Zinc	18.6×	1.6×	0.9×	—	2.3%
Hyundai Steel	—	0.2×	0.1×	—	1.9%
Poongsan	8.0×	0.7×	0.3×	5.9×	3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings	11.5×	0.5×	0.3×	9.2×	4.2%
Sama Aluminium	—	4.0×	2.9×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	13.8×	0.6×	0.3×	7.7×	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Moonbae Steel / 문배철강 / 008420 / KRX:008420

Source: KRX statistical information