Daedong Gear

008830 · KOSDAQ · ₩008830 · 대동기어

₩5,560▼ ₩230 (3.97%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩31B
Equity value
−₩148B
WACC
6.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩5,560, the model needs an operating margin of 8.7% every year (it uses 2.0%).
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 11.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.74

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.61, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩227B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩118B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.1B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
19,181,916
Share price
₩5,560
Market cap
₩107B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩281B₩257B₩221B₩221B₩217B₩217B₩221B₩227B
Growth16.2%−8.6%−14.1%−3.0%−1.5%0.0%1.5%3.0%
EBIT₩8.1B₩4.5B₩162M₩4.4B₩4.3B₩4.3B₩4.4B₩4.5B
EBIT margin2.9%1.7%0.1%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
After-tax EBIT₩5.9B₩3.2B₩118M₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.3B
+ Depreciation₩6.8B₩7.3B₩7.8B₩6.4B₩6.3B₩6.3B₩6.4B₩6.6B
− Capital spending——₩26B₩26B₩25B₩25B₩26B₩27B
− Working capital−₩1.8B₩4.4B−₩21B−₩1.1B−₩513M₩0₩505M₩1B
Free cash flow——₩3.1B−₩15B−₩15B−₩16B−₩17B−₩18B
Discount factor———0.9430.8900.8400.7920.747
Present value———−₩14B−₩14B−₩13B−₩13B−₩13B

Terminal value ₩49B, worth ₩37B today: -118% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩4,011 a share)Now 1.39×₩4,3391.08×₩6,1101.52×₩11,3822.84×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩541 a share)Now 10.3×₩10,32719.1×₩14,99827.7×₩38,15170.6×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.0%—————
5.5%—————
6.0%—————
6.5%—————
7.0%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩107B
Enterprise value
₩224B
P/E
—
P/B
1.4×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
27.7×
Dividend yield
0.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩11,165₩8,512₩7,366₩4,401₩3,780
Market cap₩214B₩163B₩141B₩84B₩73B
P/E—139.8×51.0×20.0×15.2×
P/B2.7×1.9×1.6×1.1×1.0×
P/S1.0×0.6×0.5×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA39.7×21.4×14.8×11.8×10.6×
Dividend yield0.2%0.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Daedong Gear—1.4×0.5×27.7×0.5%
Doosan Enerbility200.6×4.5×2.0×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor84.5×25.1×34.0×76.1×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,135.2×13.9×36.4×2,185.7×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,308.5×55.2×162.6×—0.0%
EO Technics47.1×6.8×11.5×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,805.1×923.8×743.7×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)667.9×19.5×35.2×1,130.9×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Daedong Gear / 대동기어 / 008830 / KRX:008830

Source: KRX statistical information