Ask Warren

SIMPACInc

009160 · KOSPI · ₩009160 · SIMPAC

₩4,440▼ ₩25 (0.56%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩34,872

vs the current price (₩4,440)

Enterprise value
₩2.5T
Equity value
₩2.3T
WACC
5.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 685% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,440, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses 7.5%).
  • Margins ranged from 2.9% to 17.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 11.7× against a typical 9.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩14,153
+218.8%
Base
₩34,872
+685.4%
Bull
₩77,166
+1,638.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.5%).

Revenue growth

  • 20.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 16.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (20.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 29%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩288B
+ Stakes and investments
₩114B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
65,370,968
Share price
₩4,440
Market cap
₩290B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩609B₩785B₩1.2T₩1.7T₩2T₩2.2T₩2.4T₩2.5T
Growth−9.3%28.8%50.2%20.6%16.2%11.8%7.4%3.0%
EBIT₩18B₩24B₩46B₩129B₩150B₩167B₩180B₩185B
EBIT margin2.9%3.1%3.9%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%
After-tax EBIT₩13B₩18B₩33B₩93B₩108B₩121B₩130B₩134B
+ Depreciation———₩58B₩68B₩76B₩81B₩84B
− Capital spending₩19B₩42B₩49B₩72B₩84B₩94B₩101B₩104B
− Working capital−₩55B₩99B₩56B₩85B₩81B₩68B₩48B₩21B
Free cash flow———−₩5.4B₩12B₩35B₩63B₩94B
Discount factor———0.9460.8940.8460.8000.756
Present value———−₩5.1B₩11B₩30B₩51B₩71B

Terminal value ₩3T, worth ₩2.3T today: 94% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,307 a share)Now 0.43×₩4,3900.43×₩5,1210.50×₩7,9680.77×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩380 a share)Now 11.7×₩1,1803.10×₩3,6689.64×₩11,01028.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,036 a share)Now 4.29×₩3,2143.10×₩9,9889.64×₩29,98128.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.7%₩38,661₩43,513₩50,117₩59,647₩74,618
5.2%₩33,229₩36,736₩41,312₩47,541₩56,527
5.7%₩28,952₩31,568₩34,872₩39,181₩45,046
6.2%₩25,501₩27,500₩29,960₩33,066₩37,118
6.7%₩22,660₩24,216₩26,092₩28,402₩31,317

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩290B
Enterprise value
₩576B
P/E
11.7×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,100₩3,755₩3,930₩4,685₩6,410
Market cap₩333B₩245B₩257B₩306B₩419B
P/E16.2×8.9×—4.0×4.6×
P/B0.5×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.8×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×0.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.9%5.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SIMPACInc11.7×0.4×0.2×—6.8%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.1×1.6×0.8×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.7×0.6×0.3×9.6×3.8%
Sama Aluminium—4.3×3.1×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.4×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SIMPACInc / SIMPAC / 009160 / KRX:009160

Source: KRX statistical information