Kwangdong Pharmaceutical광동제약
009290 · KOSPI · ₩009290 · 광동제약
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩8,537
vs the current price (₩6,360)
- Enterprise value
- ₩481B
- Equity value
- ₩425B
- WACC
- 6.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩8,537
- +34.2%
- Bull
- ₩31,354
- +393.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.3%).
Revenue growth
- 5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 10.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.7T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩126B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩137B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩66B
- Shares
- 49,799,808
- Share price
- ₩6,360
- Market cap
- ₩317B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T | ₩2.1T |
| Growth | 5.8% | 8.3% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩42B | ₩30B | ₩31B | ₩41B | ₩43B | ₩45B | ₩46B | ₩48B |
| EBIT margin | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩31B | ₩22B | ₩23B | ₩30B | ₩31B | ₩32B | ₩34B | ₩35B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩41B | ₩43B | ₩45B | ₩46B | ₩48B |
| − Capital spending | ₩35B | ₩78B | ₩26B | ₩52B | ₩54B | ₩56B | ₩58B | ₩60B |
| − Working capital | −₩171B | ₩304B | −₩104B | ₩8.9B | ₩8.4B | ₩7.8B | ₩7.1B | ₩6.3B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩10B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩16B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.939 | 0.882 | 0.829 | 0.779 | 0.731 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩9.6B | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B |
Terminal value ₩585B, worth ₩428B today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩12,825 a share)Now 0.50× | ₩6,1300.48× | ₩7,4490.58× | ₩8,8990.69× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩438 a share)Now 14.5× | ₩3,5688.14× | ₩4,64510.6× | ₩6,42014.7× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩218 a share)Now 29.2× | ₩1,7718.14× | ₩2,30510.6× | ₩3,18714.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | ₩9,650 | ₩10,498 | ₩11,588 | ₩13,041 | ₩15,078 |
| 6.0% | ₩8,455 | ₩9,084 | ₩9,868 | ₩10,875 | ₩12,216 |
| 6.5% | ₩7,482 | ₩7,958 | ₩8,537 | ₩9,259 | ₩10,184 |
| 7.0% | ₩6,675 | ₩7,041 | ₩7,477 | ₩8,008 | ₩8,669 |
| 7.5% | ₩5,995 | ₩6,279 | ₩6,613 | ₩7,011 | ₩7,495 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩317B
- Enterprise value
- ₩443B
- P/E
- 14.5×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.6%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩5,860 | ₩5,440 | ₩7,430 | ₩5,960 | ₩7,430 |
| Market cap | ₩292B | ₩271B | ₩370B | ₩297B | ₩370B |
| P/E | 13.9× | 6.7× | 10.0× | 12.3× | 15.4× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.7× | 0.6× | 0.7× |
| P/S | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 1.8% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwangdong Pharmaceutical | 14.5× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 1.6% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.1× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.8× | 2.4× | 8.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 78.8× | 28.4× | 59.9× | — | 0.1% |
| Yuhan | 24.8× | 2.5× | 2.6× | 32.5× | 0.8% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.6× | 5.7× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.8× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 32.5× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kwangdong Pharmaceutical / 광동제약 / 009290 / KRX:009290
Source: KRX statistical information