Ask Warren

Kyung Dong Navien

009450 · KOSPI · ₩009450 · 경동나비엔

₩57,800▼ ₩900 (1.53%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩124,560

vs the current price (₩57,800)

Enterprise value
₩2T
Equity value
₩1.8T
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 116% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩57,800, the model needs an operating margin of 5.2% every year (it uses 8.5%).
  • Or revenue growth −16.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 5.3× against a typical 9.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩56,876
−1.6%
Base
₩124,560
+115.5%
Bull
₩247,552
+328.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.5%).

Revenue growth

  • 9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 8.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 6.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 8.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 13.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩204B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.5B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩7.6B
Shares
14,568,592
Share price
₩57,800
Market cap
₩842B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.2T₩1.4T₩1.5T₩1.7T₩1.8T₩1.9T₩2T₩2.1T
Growth3.7%12.4%11.0%9.0%7.5%6.0%4.5%3.0%
EBIT₩106B₩133B₩143B₩144B₩155B₩165B₩172B₩177B
EBIT margin8.8%9.8%9.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%
After-tax EBIT₩77B₩96B₩104B₩105B₩113B₩119B₩125B₩128B
+ Depreciation———₩110B₩119B₩126B₩131B₩135B
− Capital spending₩66B₩111B₩162B₩139B₩150B₩159B₩166B₩171B
− Working capital₩21B₩183B₩77B₩19B₩17B₩15B₩12B₩8.2B
Free cash flow———₩57B₩64B₩72B₩79B₩85B
Discount factor———0.9380.8790.8240.7730.724
Present value———₩53B₩57B₩59B₩61B₩61B

Terminal value ₩2.4T, worth ₩1.7T today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩60,952 a share)Now 0.95×₩62,0211.02×₩82,5431.35×₩110,0311.81×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩10,922 a share)Now 5.29×₩78,6917.20×₩99,7279.13×₩140,06712.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩18,796 a share)Now 3.08×₩135,4197.20×₩171,6189.13×₩241,03912.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%₩132,833₩146,945₩164,891₩188,489₩220,926
6.2%₩117,617₩128,638₩142,290₩159,650₩182,479
6.7%₩105,110₩113,900₩124,560₩137,766₩154,558
7.2%₩94,653₩101,785₩110,287₩120,597₩133,369
7.7%₩85,782₩91,655₩98,553₩106,774₩116,745

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩842B
Enterprise value
₩1T
P/E
5.3×
P/B
0.9×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩55,500₩87,800₩47,200₩33,800₩54,900
Market cap₩809B₩1.3T₩688B₩492B₩800B
P/E9.0×10.3×8.3×9.2×9.9×
P/B1.0×1.8×1.2×1.0×1.8×
P/S0.5×0.9×0.6×0.4×0.7×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kyung Dong Navien5.3×0.9×0.5×—0.0%
LS Electric57.7×10.5×3.9×35.7×0.0%
Hyosung Heavy Industries28.8×6.5×2.6×—0.4%
HD Hyundai Electric18.0×6.8×3.5×—0.0%
Gaon Cable105.6×12.8×2.3×55.0×0.0%
Sanil Electric24.9×6.8×7.6×—0.9%
Taihan Cable & Solution—2.1×0.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)28.8×6.8×3.1×45.4×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kyung Dong Navien / 경동나비엔 / 009450 / KRX:009450

Source: KRX statistical information