POSCO M-Tech포스코엠텍
009520 · KOSDAQ · ₩009520 · 포스코엠텍
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩2,012
vs the current price (₩10,800)
- Enterprise value
- ₩60B
- Equity value
- ₩84B
- WACC
- 8.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 81% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩10,800, the model needs an operating margin of 9.5% every year (it uses 2.0%).
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩126
- −98.8%
- Base
- ₩2,012
- −81.4%
- Bull
- ₩5,477
- −49.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).
Revenue growth
- 1.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 21.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.73
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩392B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩24B
- Shares
- 41,642,703
- Share price
- ₩10,800
- Market cap
- ₩450B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩341B | ₩347B | ₩357B | ₩398B | ₩405B | ₩414B | ₩425B | ₩438B |
| Growth | −0.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩4.5B | ₩1.4B | ₩1B | ₩8B | ₩8.1B | ₩8.3B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.8B |
| EBIT margin | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩3.3B | ₩1B | ₩750M | ₩5.8B | ₩5.9B | ₩6B | ₩6.2B | ₩6.3B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩3.2B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩7.3B | ₩2.9B | ₩681M | ₩4B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩19B | −₩924M | −₩4.6B | ₩1.3B | ₩1.6B | ₩2B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.8B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩3.7B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.2B | ₩3B | ₩2.7B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.793 | 0.734 | 0.680 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩3.4B | ₩3B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.2B | ₩1.8B |
Terminal value ₩69B, worth ₩47B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,009 a share)Now 3.59× | ₩8,5202.83× | ₩15,5645.17× | ₩26,2298.72× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | ₩2,337 | ₩2,325 | ₩2,309 | ₩2,288 | ₩2,259 |
| 7.5% | ₩2,192 | ₩2,172 | ₩2,147 | ₩2,116 | ₩2,076 |
| 8.0% | ₩2,067 | ₩2,042 | ₩2,012 | ₩1,975 | ₩1,929 |
| 8.5% | ₩1,959 | ₩1,932 | ₩1,898 | ₩1,858 | ₩1,809 |
| 9.0% | ₩1,865 | ₩1,836 | ₩1,800 | ₩1,759 | ₩1,709 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩450B
- Enterprise value
- ₩426B
- P/E
- 28.6×
- P/B
- 3.6×
- P/S
- 1.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩15,790 | ₩11,950 | ₩29,400 | ₩7,990 | ₩7,820 |
| Market cap | ₩658B | ₩498B | ₩1.2T | ₩333B | ₩326B |
| P/E | 465.8× | 876.9× | 251.5× | 69.0× | 24.9× |
| P/B | 5.8× | 4.5× | 10.6× | 2.9× | 3.1× |
| P/S | 1.8× | 1.4× | 3.6× | 1.0× | 1.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POSCO M-Tech | 28.6× | 3.6× | 1.1× | — | 0.1% |
| POSCO Holdings | 16.2× | 0.4× | 0.3× | 7.7× | 3.6% |
| Korea Zinc | 18.6× | 1.6× | 0.9× | — | 2.3% |
| Hyundai Steel | — | 0.2× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| Poongsan | 8.1× | 0.7× | 0.3× | 5.9× | 2.9% |
| SeAH Besteel Holdings | 12.2× | 0.5× | 0.3× | 9.5× | 4.0% |
| Sama Aluminium | — | 4.1× | 3.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 14.2× | 0.6× | 0.3× | 7.7× | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: POSCO M-Tech / 포스코엠텍 / 009520 / KRX:009520
Source: KRX statistical information