POSCO M-Tech

009520 · KOSDAQ · ₩009520 · 포스코엠텍

₩10,800▼ ₩310 (2.79%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,012

vs the current price (₩10,800)

Enterprise value
₩60B
Equity value
₩84B
WACC
8.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 81% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩10,800, the model needs an operating margin of 9.5% every year (it uses 2.0%).

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩126
−98.8%
Base
₩2,012
−81.4%
Bull
₩5,477
−49.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 21.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.73

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩392B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩24B
Shares
41,642,703
Share price
₩10,800
Market cap
₩450B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩341B₩347B₩357B₩398B₩405B₩414B₩425B₩438B
Growth−0.2%1.5%3.1%1.5%1.8%2.2%2.6%3.0%
EBIT₩4.5B₩1.4B₩1B₩8B₩8.1B₩8.3B₩8.5B₩8.8B
EBIT margin1.3%0.4%0.3%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
After-tax EBIT₩3.3B₩1B₩750M₩5.8B₩5.9B₩6B₩6.2B₩6.3B
+ Depreciation———₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.3B₩3.4B₩3.5B
− Capital spending₩7.3B₩2.9B₩681M₩4B₩4.1B₩4.1B₩4.3B₩4.4B
− Working capital−₩19B−₩924M−₩4.6B₩1.3B₩1.6B₩2B₩2.4B₩2.8B
Free cash flow———₩3.7B₩3.5B₩3.2B₩3B₩2.7B
Discount factor———0.9260.8570.7930.7340.680
Present value———₩3.4B₩3B₩2.6B₩2.2B₩1.8B

Terminal value ₩69B, worth ₩47B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,009 a share)Now 3.59×₩8,5202.83×₩15,5645.17×₩26,2298.72×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.0%₩2,337₩2,325₩2,309₩2,288₩2,259
7.5%₩2,192₩2,172₩2,147₩2,116₩2,076
8.0%₩2,067₩2,042₩2,012₩1,975₩1,929
8.5%₩1,959₩1,932₩1,898₩1,858₩1,809
9.0%₩1,865₩1,836₩1,800₩1,759₩1,709

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩450B
Enterprise value
₩426B
P/E
28.6×
P/B
3.6×
P/S
1.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩15,790₩11,950₩29,400₩7,990₩7,820
Market cap₩658B₩498B₩1.2T₩333B₩326B
P/E465.8×876.9×251.5×69.0×24.9×
P/B5.8×4.5×10.6×2.9×3.1×
P/S1.8×1.4×3.6×1.0×1.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.1%0.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
POSCO M-Tech28.6×3.6×1.1×—0.1%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.1×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.2×0.5×0.3×9.5×4.0%
Sama Aluminium—4.1×3.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.2×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: POSCO M-Tech / 포스코엠텍 / 009520 / KRX:009520

Source: KRX statistical information