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SAM Jung Pulp

009770 · KOSPI · ₩009770 · 삼정펄프

₩26,450▼ ₩350 (1.31%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩79,009

vs the current price (₩26,450)

Enterprise value
₩12B
Equity value
₩198B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 199% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩26,450, the model needs an operating margin of −7.4% every year (it uses 1.4%).
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 1.7× against a typical 4.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩69,714
+163.6%
Base
₩79,009
+198.7%
Bull
₩96,859
+266.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 12.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.14, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩127B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩145B
+ Stakes and investments
₩40B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
2,499,971
Share price
₩26,450
Market cap
₩66B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩178B₩164B₩149B₩120B₩116B₩115B₩116B₩119B
Growth2.2%−8.1%−9.3%−5.2%−3.2%−1.1%0.9%3.0%
EBIT₩7.4B₩4.9B−₩1.4B₩1.7B₩1.6B₩1.6B₩1.6B₩1.7B
EBIT margin4.1%3.0%−1.0%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%
After-tax EBIT₩5.3B₩3.5B−₩1B₩1.2B₩1.2B₩1.2B₩1.2B₩1.2B
+ Depreciation———₩2.6B₩2.6B₩2.5B₩2.5B₩2.6B
− Capital spending₩4.9B₩5.9B₩2.7B₩3.2B₩3.1B₩3.1B₩3.1B₩3.2B
− Working capital−₩39B−₩7B−₩3.5B−₩829M−₩484M−₩161M₩130M₩438M
Free cash flow———₩1.4B₩1.1B₩752M₩466M₩177M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩1.3B₩938M₩608M₩351M₩124M

Terminal value ₩12B, worth ₩8.6B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩112,848 a share)Now 0.23×₩27,7500.25×₩31,5350.28×₩37,2510.33×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩15,337 a share)Now 1.72×₩26,9511.76×₩63,8354.16×₩177,02611.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩47,222 a share)Now 0.56×₩82,9821.76×₩196,5514.16×₩545,06611.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩79,994₩80,010₩80,024₩80,036₩80,045
6.9%₩79,513₩79,493₩79,465₩79,425₩79,369
7.4%₩79,108₩79,065₩79,009₩78,938₩78,846
7.9%₩78,762₩78,704₩78,631₩78,542₩78,429
8.4%₩78,464₩78,395₩78,312₩78,212₩78,090

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩66B
Enterprise value
−₩80B
P/E
1.7×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩31,100₩25,600₩24,950₩25,500₩30,000
Market cap₩78B₩64B₩62B₩64B₩75B
P/E2.5×1.7×4.5×—9.9×
P/B0.3×0.2×0.3×0.3×0.3×
P/S0.5×0.4×0.3×0.4×0.5×
EV/EBITDA———1.7×0.4×
Dividend yield3.2%3.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SAM Jung Pulp1.7×0.2×0.5×—3.8%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.0×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper10.0×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.3×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.4×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Similar companies (median)8.7×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SAM Jung Pulp / 삼정펄프 / 009770 / KRX:009770

Source: KRX statistical information