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MSC

009780 · KOSDAQ · ₩009780 · 엠에스씨

₩7,000▼ ₩50 (0.71%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩20,567

vs the current price (₩7,000)

Enterprise value
₩376B
Equity value
₩362B
WACC
6.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 194% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,000, the model needs an operating margin of 5.6% every year (it uses 13.8%).
  • Today's P/E is 4.6× against a typical 5.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩12,837
+83.4%
Base
₩20,567
+193.8%
Bull
₩34,105
+387.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.8%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 13.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 37.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.2, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩203B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩21B
+ Stakes and investments
₩7.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
17,600,000
Share price
₩7,000
Market cap
₩123B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩189B₩190B₩198B₩201B₩201B₩203B₩207B₩213B
Growth−7.5%0.4%4.2%−1.1%−0.1%1.0%2.0%3.0%
EBIT₩24B₩28B₩30B₩28B₩28B₩28B₩29B₩29B
EBIT margin12.5%14.5%15.0%13.8%13.8%13.8%13.8%13.8%
After-tax EBIT₩17B₩20B₩21B₩20B₩20B₩20B₩21B₩21B
+ Depreciation———₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
− Capital spending₩2.9M₩22M₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
− Working capital−₩16B−₩5B−₩1.3B−₩844M−₩76M₩758M₩1.5B₩2.3B
Free cash flow———₩21B₩20B₩20B₩19B₩19B
Discount factor———0.9360.8750.8190.7660.717
Present value———₩20B₩18B₩16B₩15B₩14B

Terminal value ₩411B, worth ₩295B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩11,581 a share)Now 0.60×₩6,8590.59×₩8,5100.73×₩11,1880.97×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,524 a share)Now 4.59×₩7,2444.75×₩8,3825.50×₩10,7067.02×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,203 a share)Now 3.18×₩10,4704.75×₩12,1155.50×₩15,4747.02×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.9%₩22,035₩23,797₩26,009₩28,869₩32,713
6.4%₩19,912₩21,290₩22,978₩25,096₩27,834
6.9%₩18,150₩19,248₩20,567₩22,183₩24,210
7.4%₩16,665₩17,553₩18,603₩19,865₩21,411
7.9%₩15,395₩16,124₩16,973₩17,977₩19,184

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩123B
Enterprise value
₩144B
P/E
4.6×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.9%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩7,920₩5,520₩5,270₩6,200₩5,930
Market cap₩139B₩97B₩93B₩109B₩104B
P/E6.1×4.5×5.0×6.0×6.8×
P/B0.7×0.6×0.6×0.8×0.9×
P/S0.7×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.6%2.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
MSC4.6×0.6×0.6×—1.9%
Samyang Foods17.6×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.6×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.6×—1.5%
Otoki17.3×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.2×0.9×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Similar companies (median)17.3×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: MSC / 엠에스씨 / 009780 / KRX:009780

Source: KRX statistical information