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MDSsphere

009810 · KOSPI · ₩009810 · MDS스피어

₩1,700▼ ₩52 (2.97%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩95B
Equity value
−₩110B
WACC
12.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,700, the model needs an operating margin of 2.4% every year (it uses −2.1%).
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 24.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 18.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 13.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -2.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 9.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 1.5

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 1.75, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩275B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩36B
+ Stakes and investments
₩75B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩126B
Shares
20,351,656
Share price
₩1,700
Market cap
₩35B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩214B₩268B₩251B₩342B₩406B₩461B₩499B₩514B
Growth63.3%25.1%−6.5%24.1%18.8%13.5%8.3%3.0%
EBIT−₩2.6B−₩5.1B−₩4.4B−₩7.2B−₩8.5B−₩9.7B−₩10B−₩11B
EBIT margin−1.2%−1.9%−1.8%−2.1%−2.1%−2.1%−2.1%−2.1%
After-tax EBIT−₩1.9B−₩3.7B−₩3.2B−₩5.2B−₩6.2B−₩7B−₩7.6B−₩7.8B
+ Depreciation———₩2.7B₩3.2B₩3.7B₩4B₩4.1B
− Capital spending₩1.3B₩1.8B₩4.1B₩3.4B₩4.1B₩4.6B₩5B₩5.1B
− Working capital−₩32B−₩6.2B−₩26B₩6.3B₩6.1B₩5.2B₩3.6B₩1.4B
Free cash flow———−₩12B−₩13B−₩13B−₩12B−₩10B
Discount factor———0.8910.7940.7070.6300.561
Present value———−₩11B−₩10B−₩9.3B−₩7.7B−₩5.8B

Terminal value −₩92B, worth −₩51B today: 54% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,338 a share)Now 0.51×₩1,9680.59×₩4,7121.41×₩22,4846.74×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
11.3%—————
11.8%—————
12.3%—————
12.8%—————
13.3%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩35B
Enterprise value
−₩7.5B
P/E
—
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,504₩3,726₩5,599₩8,013₩25,743
Market cap₩51B₩76B₩114B₩163B₩524B
P/E———124.1×—
P/B0.7×1.0×2.1×2.1×10.1×
P/S0.2×0.3×0.5×1.2×12.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
MDSsphere—0.5×0.1×—0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.5×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC45.4×6.1×12.7×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.2×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.9×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)16.3×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: MDSsphere / MDS스피어 / 009810 / KRX:009810

Source: KRX statistical information