Hanwha Solutions한화솔루션
009830 · KOSPI · ₩009830 · 한화솔루션
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩4.9T
- Equity value
- −₩14T
- WACC
- 5.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩26,700, the model needs an operating margin of 8.2% every year (it uses 2.1%).
- Margins ranged from −2.7% to 7.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.1%).
Revenue growth
- -0.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 16.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 20.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 32.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.7
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.55, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩16T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩13T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩6.1T
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩2.8T
- Shares
- 227,437,152
- incl. 2,544,616 preferred
- Share price
- ₩26,700
- Market cap
- ₩6T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩13T | ₩12T | ₩13T | ₩15T | ₩15T | ₩16T | ₩16T | ₩16T |
| Growth | −2.7% | −6.7% | 7.6% | −0.8% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩605B | −₩300B | −₩365B | ₩325B | ₩325B | ₩329B | ₩336B | ₩346B |
| EBIT margin | 4.5% | −2.4% | −2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩438B | −₩218B | −₩264B | ₩235B | ₩236B | ₩238B | ₩243B | ₩251B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.5T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.6T | ₩2.7T |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.4T | ₩3.4T | ₩2T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.3T |
| − Working capital | ₩5.6T | −₩1.5T | ₩1.3T | −₩40B | ₩10B | ₩55B | ₩106B | ₩155B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩358B | −₩409B | −₩459B | −₩518B | −₩580B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.949 | 0.902 | 0.856 | 0.813 | 0.772 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩340B | −₩369B | −₩393B | −₩421B | −₩447B |
Terminal value −₩3.8T, worth −₩2.9T today: 60% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩42,689 a share)Now 0.63× | ₩25,9110.61× | ₩36,1820.85× | ₩55,6111.30× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩6T
- Enterprise value
- ₩19T
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 0.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩25,279 | ₩15,205 | ₩37,258 | ₩50,600 | ₩41,775 |
| Market cap | ₩5.7T | ₩3.4T | ₩8.4T | ₩11T | ₩9.4T |
| P/E | — | — | — | 31.7× | 15.2× |
| P/B | 0.6× | 0.4× | 1.1× | 1.3× | 1.2× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.6× | 0.8× | 0.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 1.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hanwha Solutions / 한화솔루션 / 009830 / KRX:009830
Source: KRX statistical information