Korea Refractories

010040 · KOSPI · ₩010040 · 한국내화

₩1,521▼ ₩19 (1.23%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,067

vs the current price (₩1,521)

Enterprise value
₩69B
Equity value
₩44B
WACC
6.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩1,067
−29.8%
Bull
₩6,994
+359.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 13.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩388B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩29B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
41,067,062
Share price
₩1,521
Market cap
₩62B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩412B₩416B₩406B₩405B₩420B₩435B₩450B₩463B
Growth14.8%1.0%−2.3%4.2%3.9%3.6%3.3%3.0%
EBIT−₩7.5B₩8.6B₩2.8B₩8.1B₩8.4B₩8.7B₩9B₩9.3B
EBIT margin−1.8%2.1%0.7%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩5.5B₩6.2B₩2B₩5.9B₩6.1B₩6.3B₩6.5B₩6.7B
+ Depreciation———₩12B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩14B
− Capital spending———₩16B₩17B₩17B₩18B₩19B
− Working capital₩65M−₩2.8B−₩3.9B₩2.2B₩2.2B₩2.1B₩2B₩1.8B
Free cash flow———−₩413M−₩270M−₩113M₩56M₩236M
Discount factor———0.9400.8840.8310.7820.735
Present value———−₩389M−₩239M−₩94M₩43M₩174M

Terminal value ₩95B, worth ₩70B today: 101% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩4,350 a share)Now 0.35×₩1,9110.44×₩2,3590.54×₩2,6900.62×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.4%₩1,409₩1,528₩1,682₩1,888₩2,179
5.9%₩1,155₩1,235₩1,334₩1,461₩1,631
6.4%₩950₩1,003₩1,067₩1,147₩1,248
6.9%₩781₩816₩856₩905₩965
7.4%₩639₩661₩686₩715₩749

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩62B
Enterprise value
₩90B
P/E
8.0×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,095₩2,150₩3,020₩2,815₩3,525
Market cap₩86B₩88B₩124B₩116B₩145B
P/E—16.0×—142.9×25.5×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.6×0.5×0.6×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.3×0.3×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%4.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Refractories8.0×0.3×0.2×—0.0%
Tokai Carbon Korea30.7×4.3×7.0×—0.7%
Hanilcementco12.1×0.7×0.9×—6.0%
Wonik QnC13.8×1.2×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement16.9×0.8×0.9×6.0×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.5×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.2×0.3×0.4×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)13.0×0.7×0.8×6.0×2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Refractories / 한국내화 / 010040 / KRX:010040

Source: KRX statistical information