Korea Refractories한국내화
010040 · KOSPI · ₩010040 · 한국내화
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,067
vs the current price (₩1,521)
- Enterprise value
- ₩69B
- Equity value
- ₩44B
- WACC
- 6.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩1,067
- −29.8%
- Bull
- ₩6,994
- +359.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).
Revenue growth
- 4.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 13.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩388B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩29B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩3.3B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 41,067,062
- Share price
- ₩1,521
- Market cap
- ₩62B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩412B | ₩416B | ₩406B | ₩405B | ₩420B | ₩435B | ₩450B | ₩463B |
| Growth | 14.8% | 1.0% | −2.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩7.5B | ₩8.6B | ₩2.8B | ₩8.1B | ₩8.4B | ₩8.7B | ₩9B | ₩9.3B |
| EBIT margin | −1.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩5.5B | ₩6.2B | ₩2B | ₩5.9B | ₩6.1B | ₩6.3B | ₩6.5B | ₩6.7B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩19B |
| − Working capital | ₩65M | −₩2.8B | −₩3.9B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2B | ₩1.8B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩413M | −₩270M | −₩113M | ₩56M | ₩236M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.940 | 0.884 | 0.831 | 0.782 | 0.735 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩389M | −₩239M | −₩94M | ₩43M | ₩174M |
Terminal value ₩95B, worth ₩70B today: 101% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩4,350 a share)Now 0.35× | ₩1,9110.44× | ₩2,3590.54× | ₩2,6900.62× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | ₩1,409 | ₩1,528 | ₩1,682 | ₩1,888 | ₩2,179 |
| 5.9% | ₩1,155 | ₩1,235 | ₩1,334 | ₩1,461 | ₩1,631 |
| 6.4% | ₩950 | ₩1,003 | ₩1,067 | ₩1,147 | ₩1,248 |
| 6.9% | ₩781 | ₩816 | ₩856 | ₩905 | ₩965 |
| 7.4% | ₩639 | ₩661 | ₩686 | ₩715 | ₩749 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩62B
- Enterprise value
- ₩90B
- P/E
- 8.0×
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩2,095 | ₩2,150 | ₩3,020 | ₩2,815 | ₩3,525 |
| Market cap | ₩86B | ₩88B | ₩124B | ₩116B | ₩145B |
| P/E | — | 16.0× | — | 142.9× | 25.5× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 0.5× | 0.6× |
| P/S | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 4.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Refractories | 8.0× | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Tokai Carbon Korea | 30.7× | 4.3× | 7.0× | — | 0.7% |
| Hanilcementco | 12.1× | 0.7× | 0.9× | — | 6.0% |
| Wonik QnC | 13.8× | 1.2× | 0.7× | — | 0.5% |
| Sampyo Cement | 16.9× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 6.0× | 2.2% |
| Hanil Holdings | 9.5× | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 5.9% |
| IS Dongseo | 5.2× | 0.3× | 0.4× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 13.0× | 0.7× | 0.8× | 6.0× | 2.8% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Korea Refractories / 한국내화 / 010040 / KRX:010040
Source: KRX statistical information