OCI HoldingsOCI홀딩스
010060 · KOSPI · ₩010060 · OCI홀딩스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
This is a holding company, but we don't have its stakes in listed companies yet, so we use a discounted cash flow for now.
Fair value per share
₩160,233
vs the current price (₩180,600)
- Enterprise value
- ₩4.2T
- Equity value
- ₩3T
- WACC
- 6.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩73,910
- −59.1%
- Base
- ₩160,233
- −11.3%
- Bull
- ₩319,761
- +77.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.2%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 11.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 7.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.39, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩3.6T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩927B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩642B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩880B
- Shares
- 18,670,232
- Share price
- ₩180,600
- Market cap
- ₩3.4T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩2.6T | ₩3.6T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.2T | ₩3T | ₩2.9T | ₩2.9T | ₩3T |
| Growth | −43.3% | 35.0% | −5.5% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩531B | ₩102B | −₩58B | ₩360B | ₩336B | ₩324B | ₩323B | ₩333B |
| EBIT margin | 20.0% | 2.8% | −1.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩385B | ₩74B | −₩42B | ₩261B | ₩244B | ₩235B | ₩235B | ₩242B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩231B | ₩216B | ₩208B | ₩208B | ₩214B |
| − Capital spending | ₩158B | ₩360B | ₩373B | ₩289B | ₩270B | ₩260B | ₩260B | ₩268B |
| − Working capital | −₩209B | ₩500B | −₩203B | −₩143B | −₩86B | −₩42B | −₩2.3B | ₩35B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩346B | ₩276B | ₩225B | ₩185B | ₩153B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.938 | 0.880 | 0.825 | 0.774 | 0.726 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩325B | ₩243B | ₩186B | ₩143B | ₩111B |
Terminal value ₩4.3T, worth ₩3.1T today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩219,205 a share)Now 0.82× | ₩73,6850.34× | ₩111,1870.51× | ₩193,5910.88× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,002 a share)Now 90.2× | ₩3,0281.51× | ₩4,4152.21× | ₩17,7488.87× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩10,338 a share)Now 17.5× | ₩15,6421.51× | ₩22,8052.21× | ₩91,6748.87× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | ₩178,529 | ₩196,143 | ₩218,561 | ₩248,097 | ₩288,833 |
| 6.1% | ₩155,821 | ₩169,239 | ₩185,861 | ₩207,014 | ₩234,880 |
| 6.6% | ₩137,153 | ₩147,588 | ₩160,233 | ₩175,894 | ₩195,824 |
| 7.1% | ₩121,535 | ₩129,785 | ₩139,604 | ₩151,501 | ₩166,234 |
| 7.6% | ₩108,276 | ₩114,888 | ₩122,639 | ₩131,862 | ₩143,035 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩3.4T
- Enterprise value
- ₩4.3T
- P/E
- 90.2×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 0.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩115,200 | ₩58,800 | ₩106,200 | ₩64,212 | ₩82,649 |
| Market cap | ₩2.2T | ₩1.1T | ₩2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.5T |
| P/E | — | 11.2× | 2.8× | 1.4× | 2.4× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.3× | 0.5× |
| P/S | 0.6× | 0.3× | 0.7× | 0.3× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.9% | 3.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCI Holdings | 90.2× | 0.8× | 0.9× | — | 0.6% |
| SK Square | 3.3× | 2.0× | 88.7× | 3.2× | 0.0% |
| KB Financial Group | 8.3× | 0.9× | — | 9.3× | 3.0% |
| Shinhan Financial Group | 7.5× | 0.7× | — | 10.0× | 3.0% |
| SK | 4.5× | 1.0× | 0.3× | — | 1.6% |
| Hana Financial Group | 7.5× | 0.7× | — | 9.8× | 3.6% |
| Woori Financial Group | 6.7× | 0.5× | — | 8.2× | 4.7% |
| Similar companies (median) | 7.1× | 0.8× | 44.5× | 9.3× | 3.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: OCI Holdings / OCI홀딩스 / 010060 / KRX:010060
Source: KRX statistical information