Korea Zinc고려아연
010130 · KOSPI · ₩010130 · 고려아연
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,033,165
vs the current price (₩876,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩23T
- Equity value
- ₩22T
- WACC
- 7.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩503,669
- −42.5%
- Base
- ₩1,033,165
- +17.9%
- Bull
- ₩1,929,422
- +120.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.0%).
Revenue growth
- 13.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 6.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 17.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.76
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.65, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩21T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩2.1T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩1.2T
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩251B
- Shares
- 20,872,969
- Share price
- ₩876,000
- Market cap
- ₩18T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩9.7T | ₩12T | ₩17T | ₩24T | ₩27T | ₩29T | ₩31T | ₩32T |
| Growth | −13.5% | 24.2% | 37.6% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩660B | ₩723B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.9T | ₩2.2T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.6T |
| EBIT margin | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩478B | ₩525B | ₩893B | ₩1.4T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T |
| − Capital spending | ₩439B | ₩1.1T | ₩943B | ₩1.6T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T | ₩2.1T |
| − Working capital | ₩473B | −₩1.7T | ₩1.3T | ₩532B | ₩488B | ₩412B | ₩300B | ₩167B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩564B | ₩730B | ₩910B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.3T |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.928 | 0.861 | 0.799 | 0.742 | 0.689 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩523B | ₩629B | ₩727B | ₩814B | ₩876B |
Terminal value ₩28T, worth ₩19T today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩543,433 a share)Now 1.61× | ₩607,3641.12× | ₩858,8151.58× | ₩1,501,2142.76× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩47,173 a share)Now 18.6× | ₩714,74915.2× | ₩1,147,73024.3× | ₩2,302,36248.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩66,804 a share)Now 13.1× | ₩1,012,20215.2× | ₩1,625,37624.3× | ₩3,260,52648.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | ₩1,107,731 | ₩1,188,392 | ₩1,285,836 | ₩1,405,992 | ₩1,557,950 |
| 7.2% | ₩1,004,701 | ₩1,069,903 | ₩1,147,347 | ₩1,240,901 | ₩1,356,256 |
| 7.7% | ₩917,143 | ₩970,586 | ₩1,033,165 | ₩1,107,490 | ₩1,197,274 |
| 8.2% | ₩841,849 | ₩886,175 | ₩937,449 | ₩997,485 | ₩1,068,786 |
| 8.7% | ₩776,441 | ₩813,580 | ₩856,089 | ₩905,260 | ₩962,829 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩18T
- Enterprise value
- ₩20T
- P/E
- 18.6×
- P/B
- 1.6×
- P/S
- 0.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,316,000 | ₩1,006,000 | ₩498,000 | ₩564,000 | ₩511,000 |
| Market cap | ₩27T | ₩21T | ₩10T | ₩12T | ₩11T |
| P/E | 35.4× | 69.8× | 24.0× | 19.0× | 13.2× |
| P/B | 2.6× | 2.9× | 1.1× | 1.3× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 1.7× | 1.7× | 1.1× | 1.0× | 1.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.5% | 1.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Zinc | 18.6× | 1.6× | 0.9× | — | 2.3% |
| POSCO Holdings | 16.1× | 0.4× | 0.3× | 7.7× | 3.7% |
| Hyundai Steel | — | 0.2× | 0.1× | — | 1.9% |
| Poongsan | 8.0× | 0.7× | 0.3× | 5.9× | 3.0% |
| SeAH Besteel Holdings | 11.5× | 0.5× | 0.3× | 9.2× | 4.2% |
| Sama Aluminium | — | 4.0× | 2.9× | — | 0.0% |
| HVM | 1,211.5× | 5.4× | 8.4× | 59.0× | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 13.8× | 0.6× | 0.3× | 8.4× | 2.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Korea Zinc / 고려아연 / 010130 / KRX:010130
Source: KRX statistical information