Korea Zinc

010130 · KOSPI · ₩010130 · 고려아연

₩876,000▼ ₩2,000 (0.23%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,033,165

vs the current price (₩876,000)

Enterprise value
₩23T
Equity value
₩22T
WACC
7.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩503,669
−42.5%
Base
₩1,033,165
+17.9%
Bull
₩1,929,422
+120.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 13.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (13.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 6.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.76

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.65, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩21T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩2.1T
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.2T
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩251B
Shares
20,872,969
Share price
₩876,000
Market cap
₩18T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩9.7T₩12T₩17T₩24T₩27T₩29T₩31T₩32T
Growth−13.5%24.2%37.6%13.9%11.2%8.5%5.7%3.0%
EBIT₩660B₩723B₩1.2T₩1.9T₩2.2T₩2.3T₩2.5T₩2.6T
EBIT margin6.8%6.0%7.4%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%
After-tax EBIT₩478B₩525B₩893B₩1.4T₩1.6T₩1.7T₩1.8T₩1.9T
+ Depreciation———₩1.3T₩1.4T₩1.5T₩1.6T₩1.7T
− Capital spending₩439B₩1.1T₩943B₩1.6T₩1.8T₩1.9T₩2T₩2.1T
− Working capital₩473B−₩1.7T₩1.3T₩532B₩488B₩412B₩300B₩167B
Free cash flow———₩564B₩730B₩910B₩1.1T₩1.3T
Discount factor———0.9280.8610.7990.7420.689
Present value———₩523B₩629B₩727B₩814B₩876B

Terminal value ₩28T, worth ₩19T today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩543,433 a share)Now 1.61×₩607,3641.12×₩858,8151.58×₩1,501,2142.76×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩47,173 a share)Now 18.6×₩714,74915.2×₩1,147,73024.3×₩2,302,36248.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩66,804 a share)Now 13.1×₩1,012,20215.2×₩1,625,37624.3×₩3,260,52648.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.7%₩1,107,731₩1,188,392₩1,285,836₩1,405,992₩1,557,950
7.2%₩1,004,701₩1,069,903₩1,147,347₩1,240,901₩1,356,256
7.7%₩917,143₩970,586₩1,033,165₩1,107,490₩1,197,274
8.2%₩841,849₩886,175₩937,449₩997,485₩1,068,786
8.7%₩776,441₩813,580₩856,089₩905,260₩962,829

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩18T
Enterprise value
₩20T
P/E
18.6×
P/B
1.6×
P/S
0.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,316,000₩1,006,000₩498,000₩564,000₩511,000
Market cap₩27T₩21T₩10T₩12T₩11T
P/E35.4×69.8×24.0×19.0×13.2×
P/B2.6×2.9×1.1×1.3×1.4×
P/S1.7×1.7×1.1×1.0×1.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.5%1.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
HVM1,211.5×5.4×8.4×59.0×0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×8.4×2.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Zinc / 고려아연 / 010130 / KRX:010130

Source: KRX statistical information