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Samsung Heavy Industries

010140 · KOSPI · ₩010140 · 삼성중공업

₩15,720▼ ₩790 (4.78%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,553

vs the current price (₩15,720)

Enterprise value
₩1T
Equity value
₩1.4T
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 90% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩15,720, the model needs an operating margin of 5.3% every year (it uses 0.4%).
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩13T, operating profit ₩1.4T (10.6% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩14T, operating profit ₩2T (14.0% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Margins ranged from −19.8% to 8.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩1,553
−90.1%
Bull
₩10,109
−35.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 21.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 16.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 12.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (21.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -5.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.41, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩12T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩199B
+ Stakes and investments
₩144B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
880,000,000
Share price
₩15,720
Market cap
₩14T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩8T₩9.9T₩11T₩14T₩16T₩18T₩20T₩20T
Growth34.7%23.6%7.5%21.5%16.8%12.2%7.6%3.0%
EBIT₩233B₩503B₩862B₩56B₩66B₩74B₩80B₩82B
EBIT margin2.9%5.1%8.1%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
After-tax EBIT₩169B₩364B₩625B₩41B₩48B₩54B₩58B₩59B
+ Depreciation———₩212B₩247B₩277B₩298B₩307B
− Capital spending₩153B₩173B₩216B₩268B₩313B₩351B₩378B₩389B
− Working capital₩32B−₩879B−₩724B−₩137B−₩130B−₩111B−₩77B−₩33B
Free cash flow———₩122B₩112B₩90B₩55B₩10B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩113B₩97B₩73B₩42B₩7.2B

Terminal value ₩984B, worth ₩691B today: 68% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,422 a share)Now 2.90×₩6,5921.22×₩11,5672.13×₩28,7925.31×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩1,411₩1,581₩1,790₩2,056₩2,403
6.8%₩1,339₩1,484₩1,659₩1,877₩2,153
7.3%₩1,278₩1,404₩1,553₩1,735₩1,960
7.8%₩1,226₩1,336₩1,465₩1,620₩1,808
8.3%₩1,181₩1,278₩1,391₩1,525₩1,684

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩14T
Enterprise value
₩13T
P/E
24.5×
P/B
2.9×
P/S
1.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩24,100₩11,300₩7,750₩5,110₩5,670
Market cap₩21T₩9.9T₩6.8T₩4.5T₩5T
P/E38.9×155.7×———
P/B5.1×2.6×2.0×1.3×1.2×
P/S2.0×1.0×0.9×0.8×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samsung Heavy Industries24.5×2.9×1.2×—0.0%
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries11.3×2.7×1.3×—2.1%
Hanwha Ocean7.5×2.1×1.0×—0.0%
Daehan Shipbuilding4.5×1.1×1.1×—0.7%
Sejin Heavy Industries6.3×1.6×1.0×—3.2%
Hyundai Hyms14.1×1.3×1.3×—1.3%
Inhwa Precision11.8×0.8×2.6×15.0×2.3%
Similar companies (median)9.4×1.5×1.2×15.0×1.7%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samsung Heavy Industries / 삼성중공업 / 010140 / KRX:010140

Source: KRX statistical information