KOSDAQ · 010240 · Machinery · ₩010240

Heungkuk Metaltech흥국

010240 · KOSDAQ · ₩010240 · 흥국

₩4,935▲ ₩15 (0.30%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩18,194

vs the current price (₩4,935)

Enterprise value: ₩182B
Equity value: ₩213B
WACC: 7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 269% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩4,935, the model needs an operating margin of 2.3% every year (it uses 9.9%).
Today's P/E is 3.6× against a typical 5.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩12,019; +143.5%
Base: ₩18,194; +268.7%
Bull: ₩28,827; +484.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.9%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 10.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 21.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 31.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 42.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin9.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending2.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital29.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩151B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩31B
Shares: 11,706,000
Share price: ₩4,935
Market cap: ₩58B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩149B	₩129B	₩137B	₩152B	₩153B	₩156B	₩160B	₩165B
Growth	11.0%	−13.8%	6.5%	0.6%	1.2%	1.8%	2.4%	3.0%
EBIT	₩16B	₩8.8B	₩15B	₩15B	₩15B	₩15B	₩16B	₩16B
EBIT margin	10.6%	6.8%	10.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
After-tax EBIT	₩11B	₩6.4B	₩11B	₩11B	₩11B	₩11B	₩11B	₩12B
+ Depreciation	₩2.7B	₩3.1B	₩3.3B	₩3.3B	₩3.4B	₩3.4B	₩3.5B	₩3.6B
− Capital spending	₩5.2B	₩2.8B	₩1.3B	₩3.3B	₩3.4B	₩3.4B	₩3.5B	₩3.6B
− Working capital	₩4.2B	−₩3.8B	₩9.5B	₩268M	₩540M	₩820M	₩1.1B	₩1.4B
Free cash flow	₩4.7B	₩11B	₩3.3B	₩11B	₩10B	₩10B	₩10B	₩10B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.931	0.867	0.808	0.752	0.700
Present value	—	—	—	₩9.9B	₩9.1B	₩8.4B	₩7.8B	₩7.3B

Terminal value ₩199B, worth ₩139B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩10,893 a share)Now 0.45×	₩5,6070.51×	₩6,9620.64×	₩10,1020.93×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,389 a share)Now 3.55×	₩6,3114.54×	₩8,2225.92×	₩10,7067.71×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,396 a share)Now 3.54×	₩6,3434.54×	₩8,2635.92×	₩10,7607.71×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.4%	₩19,315	₩20,389	₩21,704	₩23,355	₩25,489
6.9%	₩17,894	₩18,746	₩19,769	₩21,023	₩22,596
7.4%	₩16,696	₩17,383	₩18,194	₩19,168	₩20,362
7.9%	₩15,673	₩16,233	₩16,886	₩17,658	₩18,585
8.4%	₩14,788	₩15,250	₩15,783	₩16,404	₩17,138

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩58B
Enterprise value: ₩25B
P/E: 3.6×
P/B: 0.5×
P/S: 0.4×
EV/EBITDA: 1.2×
Dividend yield: 5.7%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩5,200	₩5,320	₩5,930	₩5,600	₩7,750
Market cap	₩61B	₩62B	₩69B	₩66B	₩91B
P/E	5.0×	5.9×	5.3×	7.7×	7.6×
P/B	0.5×	0.6×	0.7×	0.7×	1.1×
P/S	0.4×	0.5×	0.5×	0.5×	0.6×
EV/EBITDA	1.9×	3.2×	3.1×	3.9×	5.2×
Dividend yield	5.4%	4.1%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Heungkuk Metaltech	3.6×	0.5×	0.4×	1.2×	5.7%
Doosan Enerbility	217.2×	4.8×	2.2×	—	0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor	87.4×	26.0×	35.2×	78.7×	0.4%
Jusung Engineering	1,189.7×	14.6×	38.2×	2,291.7×	0.0%
Rainbow Robotics	4,610.6×	59.1×	174.0×	—	0.0%
EO Technics	47.5×	6.9×	11.6×	—	0.0%
Wonik IPS	28.2×	4.5×	5.3×	42.7×	0.2%
Similar companies (median)	152.3×	10.7×	23.4×	78.7×	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Heungkuk Metaltech / 흥국 / 010240 / KRX:010240

Source: KRX statistical information