SM Bexel에스엠벡셀
010580 · KOSPI · ₩010580 · 에스엠벡셀
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩277
vs the current price (₩3,510)
- Enterprise value
- ₩25B
- Equity value
- ₩31B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 92% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,510, the model needs an operating margin of 19.4% every year (it uses 1.8%).
- Margins ranged from −11.2% to 4.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩277
- −92.1%
- Bull
- ₩878
- −75.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.8%).
Revenue growth
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 5.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩142B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩5.7B
- Shares
- 111,251,760
- Share price
- ₩3,510
- Market cap
- ₩390B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩203B | ₩173B | ₩150B | ₩146B | ₩151B | ₩155B | ₩160B | ₩165B |
| Growth | 48.2% | −14.9% | −12.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩9.5B | ₩5.2B | ₩1.6B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.9B | ₩3B |
| EBIT margin | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩6.9B | ₩3.8B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.1B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩3.2B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.6B |
| − Capital spending | ₩9.1B | ₩2.8B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.9B | ₩4.1B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B |
| − Working capital | −₩16B | ₩11B | −₩609M | ₩267M | ₩267M | ₩275M | ₩275M | ₩283M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩909M | ₩945M | ₩974M | ₩1B | ₩1B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩846M | ₩820M | ₩787M | ₩761M | ₩730M |
Terminal value ₩30B, worth ₩21B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩626 a share)Now 5.61× | ₩1,2732.03× | ₩2,1283.40× | ₩3,7806.04× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩297 | ₩313 | ₩332 | ₩357 | ₩388 |
| 6.9% | ₩274 | ₩287 | ₩302 | ₩320 | ₩343 |
| 7.4% | ₩255 | ₩265 | ₩277 | ₩291 | ₩308 |
| 7.9% | ₩239 | ₩247 | ₩256 | ₩267 | ₩280 |
| 8.4% | ₩225 | ₩231 | ₩239 | ₩247 | ₩258 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩390B
- Enterprise value
- ₩385B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 5.6×
- P/S
- 2.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩2,345 | ₩1,339 | ₩1,822 | ₩1,745 | ₩2,295 |
| Market cap | ₩261B | ₩149B | ₩203B | ₩194B | ₩255B |
| P/E | 158.0× | 145.2× | 290.2× | 21.0× | — |
| P/B | 3.7× | 2.2× | 3.0× | 2.9× | 7.9× |
| P/S | 1.7× | 0.9× | 1.0× | 1.4× | 3.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | 26.9× | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM Bexel | — | 5.6× | 2.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Mobis | 8.7× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 1.8% |
| SL | 6.1× | 0.9× | 0.4× | 3.7× | 0.0% |
| HL Mando | 10.7× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| Samhyun | — | 13.4× | 18.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai WIA | 19.3× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| SNT Dynamics | 13.4× | 0.7× | 0.9× | — | 6.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.7× | 0.7× | 0.5× | 3.7× | 1.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: SM Bexel / 에스엠벡셀 / 010580 / KRX:010580
Source: KRX statistical information