SM Bexel

010580 · KOSPI · ₩010580 · 에스엠벡셀

₩3,510▲ ₩365 (11.61%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩277

vs the current price (₩3,510)

Enterprise value
₩25B
Equity value
₩31B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 92% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,510, the model needs an operating margin of 19.4% every year (it uses 1.8%).
  • Margins ranged from −11.2% to 4.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩277
−92.1%
Bull
₩878
−75.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 5.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩142B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩5.7B
Shares
111,251,760
Share price
₩3,510
Market cap
₩390B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩203B₩173B₩150B₩146B₩151B₩155B₩160B₩165B
Growth48.2%−14.9%−12.9%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.0%3.0%
EBIT₩9.5B₩5.2B₩1.6B₩2.6B₩2.7B₩2.8B₩2.9B₩3B
EBIT margin4.7%3.0%1.0%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%
After-tax EBIT₩6.9B₩3.8B₩1.1B₩1.9B₩2B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.1B
+ Depreciation———₩3.2B₩3.3B₩3.4B₩3.5B₩3.6B
− Capital spending₩9.1B₩2.8B₩3.2B₩3.9B₩4.1B₩4.2B₩4.3B₩4.4B
− Working capital−₩16B₩11B−₩609M₩267M₩267M₩275M₩275M₩283M
Free cash flow———₩909M₩945M₩974M₩1B₩1B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩846M₩820M₩787M₩761M₩730M

Terminal value ₩30B, worth ₩21B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩626 a share)Now 5.61×₩1,2732.03×₩2,1283.40×₩3,7806.04×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩297₩313₩332₩357₩388
6.9%₩274₩287₩302₩320₩343
7.4%₩255₩265₩277₩291₩308
7.9%₩239₩247₩256₩267₩280
8.4%₩225₩231₩239₩247₩258

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩390B
Enterprise value
₩385B
P/E
—
P/B
5.6×
P/S
2.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,345₩1,339₩1,822₩1,745₩2,295
Market cap₩261B₩149B₩203B₩194B₩255B
P/E158.0×145.2×290.2×21.0×—
P/B3.7×2.2×3.0×2.9×7.9×
P/S1.7×0.9×1.0×1.4×3.5×
EV/EBITDA———26.9×—
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SM Bexel—5.6×2.8×—0.0%
Hyundai Mobis8.7×0.6×0.5×—1.8%
SL6.1×0.9×0.4×3.7×0.0%
HL Mando10.7×0.6×0.2×—1.9%
Samhyun—13.4×18.9×—0.0%
Hyundai WIA19.3×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
SNT Dynamics13.4×0.7×0.9×—6.8%
Similar companies (median)10.7×0.7×0.5×3.7×1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SM Bexel / 에스엠벡셀 / 010580 / KRX:010580

Source: KRX statistical information