S-OilS-Oil
010950 · KOSPI · ₩010950 · S-Oil
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩112,372
vs the current price (₩122,300)
- Enterprise value
- ₩21T
- Equity value
- ₩13T
- WACC
- 6.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩112,372
- −8.1%
- Bull
- ₩347,753
- +184.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.0%).
Revenue growth
- -6.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 8.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -1.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩37T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩7.5T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩41B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 116,604,719
- incl. 4,021,927 preferred
- Share price
- ₩122,300
- Market cap
- ₩14T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩36T | ₩37T | ₩34T | ₩35T | ₩33T | ₩33T | ₩33T | ₩34T |
| Growth | −15.8% | 2.5% | −6.5% | −6.9% | −4.4% | −2.0% | 0.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.4T | ₩422B | ₩236B | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T |
| EBIT margin | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩982B | ₩306B | ₩171B | ₩1.3T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.4T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.3T |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.2T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.9T | ₩3T | ₩2.9T | ₩2.8T | ₩2.8T | ₩2.9T |
| − Working capital | −₩999B | −₩752B | −₩3.4T | ₩34B | ₩20B | ₩8.7B | −₩2.1B | −₩13B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩638B | ₩622B | ₩621B | ₩635B | ₩664B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.941 | 0.886 | 0.834 | 0.786 | 0.740 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩601B | ₩552B | ₩518B | ₩499B | ₩491B |
Terminal value ₩24T, worth ₩18T today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩86,494 a share)Now 1.41× | ₩65,7630.76× | ₩89,9341.04× | ₩139,5641.61× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩13,069 a share)Now 9.36× | ₩58,0034.44× | ₩111,7628.55× | ₩841,85664.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩17,652 a share)Now 6.93× | ₩78,3474.44× | ₩150,9608.55× | ₩1,137,12264.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | ₩118,175 | ₩140,848 | ₩170,573 | ₩211,243 | ₩270,262 |
| 5.7% | ₩97,676 | ₩115,242 | ₩137,537 | ₩166,767 | ₩206,760 |
| 6.2% | ₩81,136 | ₩95,097 | ₩112,372 | ₩134,298 | ₩163,043 |
| 6.7% | ₩67,515 | ₩78,842 | ₩92,572 | ₩109,562 | ₩131,127 |
| 7.2% | ₩56,108 | ₩65,455 | ₩76,596 | ₩90,101 | ₩106,812 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩14T
- Enterprise value
- ₩21T
- P/E
- 9.0×
- P/B
- 1.4×
- P/S
- 0.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩83,000 | ₩54,800 | ₩69,600 | ₩83,400 | ₩85,700 |
| Market cap | ₩9.3T | ₩6.2T | ₩7.8T | ₩9.4T | ₩9.6T |
| P/E | 52.8× | — | 8.3× | 4.5× | 7.0× |
| P/B | 1.1× | 0.7× | 0.9× | 1.1× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.4% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-Oil | 9.0× | 1.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.3% |
| SK Innovation | — | 0.8× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Hankook Shell Oil | 12.9× | 5.4× | 1.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Michang Oil IND | 1.7× | 0.4× | 0.5× | — | 3.0% |
| Kukdong Oil & Chemicals | 10.0× | 0.5× | 0.1× | — | 6.2% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.0× | 0.7× | 0.4× | — | 1.5% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: S-Oil / 010950 / KRX:010950
Source: KRX statistical information