Tailim Packaging태림포장
011280 · KOSPI · ₩011280 · 태림포장
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- ₩135B
- Equity value
- −₩103B
- WACC
- 4.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,085, the model needs an operating margin of 2.3% every year (it uses 1.4%).
- Or revenue growth +31.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩9,353
- +762.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.4%).
Revenue growth
- -1.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 8.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩780B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩221B
- − Minority interests
- ₩17B
- Shares
- 70,805,940
- Share price
- ₩1,085
- Market cap
- ₩77B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩720B | ₩715B | ₩754B | ₩770B | ₩768B | ₩775B | ₩790B | ₩814B |
| Growth | −8.2% | −0.6% | 5.4% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩22B | −₩17B | −₩5B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
| EBIT margin | 3.1% | −2.3% | −0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩16B | −₩12B | −₩3.6B | ₩7.8B | ₩7.8B | ₩7.9B | ₩8B | ₩8.3B |
| + Depreciation | ₩26B | ₩28B | ₩31B | ₩30B | ₩30B | ₩30B | ₩31B | ₩32B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩32B | ₩33B |
| − Working capital | −₩31B | −₩567M | ₩48B | −₩842M | −₩128M | ₩574M | ₩1.2B | ₩2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7.9B | ₩7.2B | ₩6.5B | ₩6B | ₩5.5B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.954 | 0.910 | 0.868 | 0.827 | 0.789 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩7.5B | ₩6.5B | ₩5.7B | ₩5B | ₩4.3B |
Terminal value ₩134B, worth ₩106B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩4,248 a share)Now 0.26× | ₩1,7900.42× | ₩2,1640.51× | ₩3,5810.84× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩202 a share)Now 5.38× | ₩2,24811.1× | ₩3,12615.5× | ₩3,78018.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | — | — | — | ₩81 | ₩1,401 |
| 4.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.3% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.8% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩77B
- Enterprise value
- ₩298B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.2×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,950 | ₩1,936 | ₩2,410 | ₩2,865 | ₩4,375 |
| Market cap | ₩138B | ₩137B | ₩171B | ₩203B | ₩310B |
| P/E | — | — | 33.8× | 11.6× | 18.2× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 1.0× |
| P/S | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9× | 33.9× | 7.4× | 6.4× | 7.9× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tailim Packaging | — | 0.3× | 0.1× | 12.2× | 0.0% |
| SM Kukil | — | 3.3× | 6.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Shindaeyang Paper | 10.0× | 0.5× | 0.5× | — | 2.8% |
| Asia Paper Manufacturing | 10.3× | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 2.8% |
| Dongwha Enterprise | — | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Hansol Paper | 7.3× | 0.2× | 0.1× | — | 7.4% |
| Sambo Corrugated Board | 4.5× | 0.2× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 8.7× | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Tailim Packaging / 태림포장 / 011280 / KRX:011280
Source: KRX statistical information