KOSPI · 011780 · Chemicals · ₩011780

Kumho Petro Chemical금호석유화학

011780 · KOSPI · ₩011780 · 금호석유화학

₩106,000▲ ₩3,500 (3.41%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩233,190

vs the current price (₩106,000)

Enterprise value: ₩5.4T
Equity value: ₩6.5T
WACC: 7.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 120% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩106,000, the model needs an operating margin of 3.4% every year (it uses 7.7%).
Margins ranged from 3.8% to 28.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
30% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
Today's P/E is 5.9× against a typical 7.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩143,666; +35.5%
Base: ₩233,190; +120.0%
Bull: ₩387,208; +265.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.7%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-2.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-0.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 41.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin7.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation4.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending6.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital17.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.69
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.53, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩7.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩211B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.3T; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩1.3B
Shares: 27,943,183; incl. 3,023,486 preferred
Share price: ₩106,000
Market cap: ₩2.8T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩6.3T	₩7.2T	₩6.9T	₩6.9T	₩6.8T	₩6.7T	₩6.8T	₩7T
Growth	−20.7%	13.2%	−3.4%	−4.6%	−2.7%	−0.8%	1.1%	3.0%
EBIT	₩359B	₩273B	₩272B	₩535B	₩520B	₩516B	₩522B	₩538B
EBIT margin	5.7%	3.8%	3.9%	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%
After-tax EBIT	₩260B	₩198B	₩197B	₩388B	₩377B	₩374B	₩378B	₩390B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩340B	₩331B	₩329B	₩332B	₩342B
− Capital spending	₩590B	₩437B	₩196B	₩424B	₩412B	₩409B	₩414B	₩426B
− Working capital	−₩81B	₩86B	−₩44B	−₩57B	−₩32B	−₩9.2B	₩13B	₩35B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩362B	₩328B	₩303B	₩284B	₩271B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.929	0.863	0.802	0.745	0.692
Present value	—	—	—	₩336B	₩283B	₩243B	₩212B	₩188B

Terminal value ₩6T, worth ₩4.2T today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩241,328 a share)Now 0.44×	₩119,1790.49×	₩155,9040.65×	₩205,0200.85×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩18,070 a share)Now 5.87×	₩41,8902.32×	₩132,0587.31×	₩204,62111.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩42,996 a share)Now 2.47×	₩99,6732.32×	₩314,2167.31×	₩486,87111.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.6%	₩245,490	₩258,877	₩275,121	₩295,259	₩320,898
7.1%	₩228,465	₩239,251	₩252,109	₩267,710	₩287,050
7.6%	₩214,017	₩222,834	₩233,190	₩245,535	₩260,513
8.1%	₩201,604	₩208,900	₩217,362	₩227,301	₩239,148
8.6%	₩190,826	₩196,927	₩203,927	₩212,045	₩221,579

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩2.6T
Enterprise value: ₩2.7T
P/E: 5.2×
P/B: 0.4×
P/S: 0.4×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 1.6%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩120,700	₩90,600	₩132,900	₩126,000	₩166,000
Market cap	₩3T	₩2.3T	₩3.3T	₩3.1T	₩4.1T
P/E	10.3×	6.5×	7.4×	3.1×	2.1×
P/B	0.5×	0.4×	0.6×	0.6×	0.8×
P/S	0.4×	0.3×	0.5×	0.4×	0.5×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Kumho Petro Chemical	5.2×	0.4×	0.4×	—	1.6%
LG Chem	—	0.5×	0.3×	—	0.9%
Hanwha Solutions	—	0.6×	0.4×	—	0.0%
Hanwha	6.2×	0.4×	0.1×	—	1.4%
SKC	—	2.1×	2.0×	—	0.0%
KCC	0.9×	0.3×	0.5×	8.7×	0.0%
Soulbrain	18.7×	2.1×	2.3×	—	0.8%
Similar companies (median)	6.2×	0.5×	0.4×	8.7×	0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kumho Petro Chemical / 금호석유화학 / 011780 / KRX:011780

Source: KRX statistical information