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Ascendio

012170 · KOSPI · ₩012170 · 아센디오

₩3,090▲ ₩175 (6.00%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩291

vs the current price (₩3,090)

Enterprise value
−₩13B
Equity value
₩2.1B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 91% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,090, the model needs an operating margin of 12.9% every year (it uses −20.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −140.2% to −15.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩691
−77.6%
Base
₩291
−90.6%
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-31.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-31.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-31.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-31.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-31.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 6.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 8.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩5.9B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩12B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.9B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
7,296,721
Share price
₩3,090
Market cap
₩23B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩6.9B₩13B₩5.9B₩5.4B₩5B₩4.8B₩4.8B₩5B
Growth−62.8%95.6%−56.0%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩9.7B−₩4.1B−₩4.3B−₩1.1B−₩999M−₩964M−₩962M−₩991M
EBIT margin−140.2%−30.6%−73.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩7B−₩3B−₩3.1B−₩776M−₩724M−₩699M−₩697M−₩718M
+ Depreciation———₩348M₩325M₩313M₩313M₩322M
− Capital spending₩1.3B₩799M₩0₩433M₩404M₩390M₩390M₩401M
− Working capital−₩7.3B−₩8.5B−₩3.4B−₩238M−₩143M−₩70M−₩3.9M₩58M
Free cash flow———−₩624M−₩660M−₩706M−₩770M−₩855M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———−₩581M−₩572M−₩570M−₩579M−₩598M

Terminal value −₩15B, worth −₩10B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,590 a share)Now 1.19×₩7,6062.94×₩18,1987.03×₩43,79016.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩263₩87———
6.9%₩421₩277₩102——
7.4%₩555₩434₩291₩118—
7.9%₩670₩567₩447₩305₩133
8.4%₩769₩681₩579₩460₩318

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩23B
Enterprise value
₩11B
P/E
—
P/B
1.2×
P/S
3.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,455₩16,957₩38,610₩36,045₩59,568
Market cap₩62B₩124B₩282B₩263B₩435B
P/E—————
P/B8.5×6.3×10.7×8.2×9.7×
P/S10.4×9.2×40.9×14.2×20.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Ascendio—1.2×3.8×—0.0%
HYBE—2.1×2.0×—0.3%
SM Entertainment13.8×1.8×1.4×—2.0%
JYP Entertainment12.6×2.1×1.6×7.0×2.3%
CJ CGV—1.1×0.3×—0.0%
YG Entertainment21.9×1.4×1.2×—0.8%
Studio Dragon21.7×0.9×1.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)17.8×1.6×1.3×7.0×0.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Ascendio / 아센디오 / 012170 / KRX:012170

Source: KRX statistical information